2024 Dizzle Dynasty Mock Draft 1.0: Wizards Get a Franchise Cornerstone, Stephon Castle Stays in my Top 5, the Grizzlies Get Stacked, OKC Reaches Unfair Territory, and More
As we draw closer to the end of the 2023-2024 college basketball season and NBA season, let's take a look at how the draft is starting to shake out for teams and players.
We’re now approaching the beginning of March and reaching the home stretch of the 2023-2024 seasons of college and NBA basketball. We’re starting to see how the bulk of NBA teams have looked and some of what their records will look. In the same vein, we’re now approaching the end of the regular college basketball season and approaching the NCAA Men’s Tournament. There’s a lot to play for still, and in a draft where it feels like legitimately ANYTHING could happen, standing out at the end will be a must before workouts begin.
A few things to get out of the way before we get started:
This draft should be pretty unpredictable, so I’m currently abiding by the rankings as to how picks will fall as of Sunday, March 3. Team order is likely out of date even after I post this, but I will reflect this in future mock drafts.
These picks are a big combination of fit, upside, team need and my overall evaluation of rookies over the course of this season. Each one isn’t necessarily an endorsement of what a team needs or a dream destination for a certain player, but contains nuance that I will mention in each pick.
Take these player comparisons with a grain of salt. They’re not perfect and many of these are with the idea of “shades”, what their attributes remind me of or can be projected for an archetype. I tried to come up with a few various comps for each one, whether it’s just vibes, a similar style, a potential archetype in the right direction, a best case scenario or high-end/low-end outcomes. You’ll get some of the low-down on what each one means in my write-up.
In reference to the point(s) above: this is solely my opinions, my write-ups and notes as I see them. I do this for fun and I’m far from a professional or trained eye for talent. I’m prone to being wrong like everyone out there, and that’s what I love about exercises like these. There’s many others out there who do a great job at this, so take me as just one of many with a nuanced take on this wild, wild class.
Washington Wizards: F/C Alexandre Sarr, Perth Wildcats (NBL)
Player comparison(s): Evan Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr., OKC Serge Ibaka, Nic Claxton
This is perhaps the easiest decision a team can make in the top of the 2024 NBA Draft. By every metric, the Washington Wizards will need to splurge on talent and continue onto Year 2 of the rebuild. Despite a lot of the disappointment of their season with the addition of Jordan Poole, there’s still a lot to be excited over: Kyle Kuzma is explicitly interested in staying and building something in Washington, rookie Bilal Coulibaly is already starting to flash the high upside we’ve seen from early on as he works through inconsistencies, and Deni Avdija is already making his 4-year, $55 million contract look like a steal as perhaps Washington’s 2nd best player all season long.
It felt a bit obvious as a need all season well before the deadline, but the move to send away starting big man Daniel Gafford officially sets everything in motion for the Wizards to hunt for an uber-talented, high-upside big man to contend with the best of them in the NBA, and Alexandre Sarr is absolutely their man for the job. His defensive ceiling feels so high with the perfect versatility and athleticism as a big, fluid floor stretcher for the modern NBA. He’s quick and fluid like a forward, he’s massive with a 7’4.5” wingspan, he’s got sharp instincts and a giant motor as a shot blocker and he always hangs with his man considerably well. He’s got a fantastic rim presence and stays very active with his high motor, and I think those things alone will make him an immediate plus defender from Day 1, even if the offense needs work. The offense is what really makes such a big difference here for me in terms of potential star power. While he’s far from a great scorer and offensive threat yet, he can do more than enough as a lob threat and rim finisher with this level of length and powerful athleticism and above-the-rim play. There’s also been exciting flashes of more to him that intrigues in the upside department; he doesn’t have much for ball skills or self-creation ability yet, but he’s showing bits of 3-point shooting and playmaking.
There’s a lot here to like out of Sarr, and even if there’s some questions about what his offensive ceiling looks like in a couple years, he’s well-worth the Wizards’ time to find another franchise cornerstone as the rebuild progresses.
Detroit Pistons: G/F Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg
Player comparison(s): Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Hunter +
So, here’s the rub: we know that the Detroit Pistons are bad. We also know that they’re struggling with two things independent and dependent of each other: they have loads and loads of talent, but a lot of sketchy spacing and shooting. In a class with a lot of unpredictability, concerns about star talent with no clear-cut top guy and not much star-ceiling prospects, what is the right move for Detroit to make? Risacher feels like a no-brainer for what they’re going to be looking for.
To me right now, Risacher may not have the highest upside of the top prospects, but he’s absolutely up there near the top and his historic-level shooting is a big part of that. In leagues full of grown men, Risacher is MELTING from 3, shooting an eye-popping 45.1% from 3, with 3 makes on 4.1 attempts per game. This, along with refined shooting mechanics, really darn good ball handling and passing, a good feel for the game, good physicality, plenty of great scoring pops at different levels of competition and great size for a wing-forward at about 6’8”-6’9”, makes for a very good prospect. Oh, and he’s also not even 19 yet.
Even still, there are some concerns I have. As stated above, I question what the ceiling is for Risacher at the NBA level and whether or not the star upside is there. I’ve always been a skeptic about this and it’s still something I have to wonder, especially with how the Pistons are built right now with Cade Cunningham, Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey and rookie Ausar Thompson. Risacher is also a really good cutter and finisher in lanes, but he’s not really a great athlete with a ton of burst off the dribble or with much of an above-the-rim game. He also hasn’t been all that great as a rim finisher just being slightly over 50%. He’s already proven that he’s a great shooter at this point, but how real will that efficiency as a shooter remain at the NBA level?
All in all, Risacher has come a really long way from his dreadful performances over the summer in 2023 that first gave me pause. He’s really became one of the top guys in this draft. Removing the team selection element, he would not be my choice at 1.01, but the truth is that Risacher fits on essentially any team in the NBA and Detroit should be taking every look at him that they can.
San Antonio Spurs: G Nikola Topic, Red Star/KK Crvena Zvezda (Serbia)
Player comparison(s): Less explosive Russell Westbrook or De’Aaron Fox, modern-day Tyreke Evans
If things are going the way I perceive they will, this 2024 draft will be a historic one as the first time in NBA history that the top 3 picks in an NBA draft will all be from international programs, signaling the true exciting globalization of the sport.
And what better way to kick it off than adding one of the most dynamic offensive players in international basketball and pairing him with perhaps the most dynamic player in the entire universe? Victor Wembanyama might be the future of the NBA already for the next decade plus already, but so far, the San Antonio Spurs haven’t quite played up to expectations with their newest superstar. As of writing this, the Spurs are now 11-44 and well on their way to acquiring another pick. It’s clear that more top-notch pieces are needed in Wemby’s supporting cast, and a 1-2 offensive cornerstone like Nikola Topic should be just what the doctor ordered.
As a ball handler, Topic possesses some excellent skills as a big primary creator with the right intangible to make him dangerous at the rim. He’s a great and crafty playmaker for others and is fully capable of leading high-tempo offenses to be an X-factor in the same veins as downhill guys like Russell Westbrook and De’Aaron Fox. As I’ll mention below with Castle, I like guys who exhibit a star-like gravity and change of pace to the way they approach the point guard role, and Topic has that in the same exact way. He’s regularly turning heads as a high-scoring threat and a great playmaker in a league full of grown men.
For as exciting as he’s looked, there are some very real and valid concerns about what he is right now. We’ve yet to see him fully unleashed in top-level Euro competition after suffering a knee injury that’s knocked him out for the last 5-6 weeks. Despite his high-level offensive potential, Topic also has a floor that feels a bit scary if he’s not able to find his footing for a bit. The shot isn’t all there from deep, he’s not too refined from midrange and will be somewhat limited in terms of offensive dimension for now. He’s also arguably the worst defender among the lottery-level prospects, and even though I’m of the opinion that he has the capability to become even an average team defender, he leaves a lot to be desired on the defensive end. The BBIQ, footwork, screen navigation and closeouts all need some work for his processing, and some of the limitations could make him look like a target against opposing defenders. That being said, the offensive upside and high-level skills he has make him a very unique player with a high-risk, high-reward ceiling. He could be a pretty special player under the right developmental track and finding solutions to turn him into a more refined player, and I’m eager to see what him and Wemby can put together.
Charlotte Hornets: G/F Stephon Castle, UConn
Player comparison(s): Cade Cunningham, Lonzo Ball, Pre-superstardom SGA(?), Bruce Brown+ (in Castle’s current role)
I know, I know. I’m sure a handful of my readers more tuned into the draft probably just rolled their eyes at keeping Stephon Castle in the upper half of my lottery. Hear me out.
There’s such exciting elements to Castle’s game that I’ve just loved going back to high school that make him a My Guy for me. A fantastic connective player, ferocious driver and dynamic playmaker, Castle is everything I feel a team with plenty of shooting and flash needs to balance itself out. While he’s not a very good shooter in a similar Cade Cunningham/Lonzo Ball-esque mold, Castle is a brilliant passer, creator and defender that has tons of finesse and creativity that makes him an excellent co-star to LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller for what the team needs in a high-value starter. I’ve loved the way Castle uses his physical tools, intangibles, footwork and high BBIQ to play himself into a strong two-way role. His size also allows him to flexibly play 1-3 as a 6’6” jumbo guard-wing and should serve the Hornets well as the NBA trends bigger. One of the most interesting things I’ve seen from Castle at both his high school and college play is the level of gravity and change of pace he displays as a ball handler. It may not always show up in the way he’s utilized in Dan Hurley’s offense reminiscent of how Andre Jackson Jr. was used last season, but Castle’s level of skill is something I’ve seen in a handful of great downhill point guard prospects. This, again, gives credence to that Cade Cunningham or Lonzo Ball archetype.
I know many people have Castle MUCH lower than I have right now, and I do get the sentiment about some of the unknown. He’s shown a tendency to disappear in some games. He’s also showing a poor shooting streak that needs serious work along with a general air of offensive inconsistency. We also don’t have a big body of collegiate work that tells you that he’s a bonafide on-ball creator, and it makes you wonder if the role is more low-end to a Bruce Brown type of role or to that actual high-end ball handler/strong non-shooting option. Still, I love the home run swing and could see a very good reality where Castle and Ball click as Charlotte’s backcourt of the future, where Castle can play on and off the ball as a strong finishing, passing and point-of-attack beast, Ball as a deadly combo guard and first option who can post double and triple doubles at will, and Miller as a powerful shotmaking wing/forward. There’s a lot of levels to this that I think makes sense both in prioritizing your best players taking the shots and in fit, especially if Miles Bridges does indeed return to the team.
Portland Trailblazers: G/F Cody Williams, Colorado
Player Comparison(s): Pascal Siakam-ish, Jaden McDaniels, Terance Mann +
I LOVE the idea of Cody Williams, the brother of Oklahoma City Thunder star Jalen Williams. He’s exciting. He’s big and long for a wing at 6’8”. He’s got plenty of high-caliber physical and skill-adjacent tools starting out to be a solid player in no time. He’s a powerhouse in the lanes, melting defenders in transition and finishing with some tough shots. He’s showing some 3-point action that can be expanded upon (something this class doesn’t have a *ton* of). He’s got the ball handling and overall upside to be something really, really good.
If we’re operating with the idea of what he could be in full form with a higher jump than expected, I think we’re absolutely looking at someone who’s very much in the conversation for 1.01. Heck, you could sell me on him at almost any spot or especially over Castle and I would not argue with you. However, I just don’t know how much I trust him to be among the best in the class until we see what he *really* is at the next level. There’s just a lot of questions I have. He’s really not a great athlete despite the good bits of his game (not that he doesn’t have enough juice to do fine, he does), he’s far from refined and has a lot to learn, and even though he’s made some significant progress this season and has a steady feel for the game, he’s looked lost in more than a few games. Still, the upside is really, really exciting when he does get it rolling as we’ve seen this season, and the versatility and overall skillset is already there to build on for a valuable long-term starter.
Memphis Grizzlies: F Ron Holland, G League Ignite
Player Comparison(s): RJ Barrett, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga
It already doesn’t even feel real or fair to add a potential star at all to the Memphis Grizzlies already having Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. Now they get to add RON HOLLAND to the mix? Good Lord.
Holland has been making a really strong case for being in the mix for 1.01 all season for me, and having him 6th when applied to a real draft hurts a little. Despite the fact that the Ignite haven’t had a great season and there are a few holes to Holland’s game that development personnel will get to work on right away, Holland has continually shown that he has star-potential gravity and a really nice feel for the game that could make him into a special player at the next level.
The first thing you’ll always notice when watching Holland is he’s ferocious in a myriad of ways on the court. He’s a tough player who isn’t afraid to get physical, he’s an explosive finisher, he’s a ridiculously talented athlete who uses it to his advantage, he has a never-ending motor, he’s always hustling and never puts his head down, and gives constant effort on the defensive end. There’s so much to like here as a dynamic scorer, and teams will like that he’s already becoming really good at both drawing contact that gets him to the free throw line often and can score through contact at will. He’s also showing some upside as a passer that intrigues me. Add in his versatility and overall talent as a defender at the next level, and the full armory of skills for someone who will STILL be 18 on draft day is just enticing. Heck, even his floor right now looks really good to me.
There are a few concerns I have that all feel fixable to a degree, his shooting being the biggest as a swing skill. It’s been a regular knock on him since high school, and he’s still not flashing a lot of it with the Ignite: at 24% from the arc on 0.9 makes and 3.6 attempts per game, this will be a good part on how far he goes in the NBA with the upside. He’s also more of a straight driver rather than someone with a big bag of tricks or that can break a lot of ankles, and I would like to see him keep mixing that up. That could work somewhat hand-in-hand with his handle, which has improved this season, but it’s still a bit loose and will need some work to keep him from being pickpocketed a lot at the NBA level. Also, while he’s a really solid projectable defender, I’ve seen times where he gets a little handsy on defense that might get him in trouble. Even still, pretty much everything I just described feels coachable and can be ironed out, and I feel that illustrates how good Holland can be in the right environment with the right pieces around him. With Memphis, that feels like an excellent environment with what the team needs in a long-term forward piece and what they have in shooting and lead options. Now that Holland was recently shut down for the year due to a thumb injury, teams will now have a full body of work to analyze while Holland gets healthy and will start preparing for the pre-draft process. Overall, I could easily see him going higher than 6th, but man, the Grizzlies would be a deadly team with a potential starting unit of Morant, Bane, Vince Williams Jr., Holland and Jackson Jr.
San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto Raptors): G Reed Sheppard, Kentucky
Player Comparison(s): Player Comparison(s): Donte DiVincenzo, De’Anthony Melton, Mike Conley
By every metric, Sheppard has not only been having an outrageously good season in general for only being a freshman, but he’s been a key cog in keeping Kentucky involved in a tournament berth with some underwhelming seasons from top recruits DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards. He’s also been having an absurdly good defensive season that’s noting him as one of the best defenders (on paper) at the guard position we’ve seen in a good bit. This guy just oozes high potential: High, high, high feel for the game, can handle the ball very well, can shoot at a super efficient clip, can create for himself and others and is a brilliant defender. For someone who won’t turn 20 until late June 2024, his arsenal of skills is TERRIFYING.
I have my share of small concerns about Sheppard; he’s not very big for someone who will probably play a good bit of SG at 6’3” with a ~6’4” wingspan and ~170lbs, I’m not sure if I can be confident in him as a pure point guard or primary creator and he’s also not really a great athlete with much above-the-rim pop. For as solid as a defender that he looks, I have some concerns about how he can fare against bigger and more physically inclined players. Still, some things just have to override concerns when you have this much talent. He’s not a traditional type of high-level connector and lottery prospect for much better than for worse in my book, and you just can’t turn a blind eye to some of the most well-rounded guard tools we’ll see all year. I think the upside is higher than I originally thought and I’m fascinated how legitimately far it can grow in the NBA.
Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn Nets): G Rob Dillingham, Kentucky
Player Comparison(s): Darius Garland-lite, Immanuel Quickley, Bones Hyland +
If we’re talking pure excitement and hooping, Dillingham is the man in this class. He’s been excellent this season with fellow Kentucky recruits DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards’s underwhelming seasons, and he also has the glitz and glam we love out of former alumni like Immanuel Quickley. The Rockets have been pretty decent this season as they’ve begun to speed up their rebuild with the addition of veterans like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. There’s a lot to like about their future right now and the upside of their budding young pieces, but one of the biggest concerns is how wildly inconsistent and volatile Jalen Green has been, leaving me to question what his future really is long-term. Dillingham feels like a really good choice to figure this out long-term if he ends up as a future replacement or solid 6th man.
Dillingham’s a very flashy scorer who plays with crazy speed, high energy and athleticism that makes it easy for him to get buckets at a high efficiency. He’s had some pretty questionable shot selection and decision making early on at times, but all things considered, he’s remained quite efficient all year. I don’t know if I fully trust he can be a true 40%+ from 3 long-term or at the NBA level, but he’s currently still at 40% on the season at a nice clip. He’s also made a lot of really good strides as a playmaker next to Reed Sheppard and that combination of pure skill and finesse bodes really well to balance out his biggest weakness: his size. His current height is listed at 6’3”, which feels a liiiiittle bit gracious when you watch him (he seems far closer to 6’2” than 6’3”to me, FWIW). He’s also skinny and I worry he might be a target on defense that hurts him long-term and affect how much he can drive to the rim. That being said, there’s plenty of other 6’2” guards out there that still find their way and the pure talent both as a scorer and playmaker is pretty special. It helps he’s also showed to be a decent defender. Talent is talent, and Dillingham has it in strides to be a good player in the NBA. I could see him immediately thriving off the bench in Houston, a role he knows well (perhaps too well with Calipari’s insistence on still starting DJ Wagner and Justin Edwards).
Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston Rockets): G/F, F Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite
Player Comparison(s): Bulls Lauri Markkanen, Franz Wagner, Danilo Gallinari
Is it even fair to give OKC yet another super high-potential player with the shooting, size and skillsets they love? It’s really not, but so it goes when you knock your rebuild out of the park well, well before most expected.
Buzelis hasn’t had the most consistent season by any means, but he’s absolutely continued to flash some strong upside as a wiry big forward (6’11”) with some legit 3-point shooting gravity. He’s been often compared to that of Franz Wagner in terms of his offensive style, and while I don’t view it as a perfect comp, it’s easy to see the thought process and archetype he’s trending towards. Buzelis has been learning how to utilize his size and body in passing lanes and cutting to the rim pretty well, and he’s developing as a better off-ball player. He fits an intriguing prototype as a lower usage big forward with multi-level scoring in his offensive repertoire and legit playmaking and floor spacing upside. He’s very, very interesting if nothing else, and this late-season push that’s helped him put it all together shows a lot of improvements that helped my thinking on some of my concerns.
Buzelis might be long, but he’s thin and not very filled in. This hasn’t been as much of a problem for some prospects and it is something that can be worked on, but in his ideal role, he may struggle playing through contact early on with his finishing at the next level. He’s also not a very strong defender right now, and even though I’ve seen really good effort and positives in his instincts that show he CAN be better, his technique and footwork will need some strong work to avoid getting broken down by fast and strong forwards. Still, there is a very obvious world where he can develop into a very solid prospect with some eye-popping size and shooting touch that turns him into a very valuable player, and who else has had a better track record of that than Oklahoma City? He’s got tools that OKC already loves and will love with some fixable concerns addressed more at the end here, and he could end up fitting into a mold of very talented players as he develops. It’s hard to say where he goes in this draft just considering his level of upside in a full package, but I don’t think his recent surge at the end of GLI’s season will keep him out of the lottery.
Atlanta Hawks: F Tidjane Salaun, Cholet (France)
Player Comparison(s): Michael Porter Jr.-ish, Obi Toppin, Dorian Finney-Smith +
Salaun has been a pretty strong riser for me as of late, and despite some of the rawness to his game we’re still seeing right now, he’s showing enough high-level upside flashes for me to really be interested in his ceiling. With Atlanta having a lot of questions about their future and very few secure pieces outside of Trae Young and Jalen Johnson, I could easily see them taking a swing on Salaun’s full upside in the hope of building a really darn good core piece.
This year, Salaun has really improved as a 3-point shooter with good efficiency at a high level and much smoother mechanics than I’ve seen in the past. The level of shooting displayed with his freakish size as a forward at 6’10” with a 7’-plus wingspan is not easy to find. When you mix in the athleticism, it’s easy to see a legitimately special player in him. He plays with a lot of energy and has a great burst to his finishing that makes him a multi-level threat at will. It’s so easy to see a player like him fitting in on any team in the NBA, and a team already armed with core pieces with oodles of all-around skills and versatility means Salaun should fit right in as he continues to develop. There are still some things that will need work to make the jump to being a high-level player (namely as a full defender, improving the handle and off-the-dribble shooting, proving that this level of shooting is for real over sustained time), but this is a nice home run pick to get excited about that fits fine enough within Atlanta’s timeline.
Oklahoma City Thunder (via Utah Jazz): C Donovan Clingan, UConn
Player Comparison(s): Walker Kessler, Mitchell Robinson
I’ll be honest: I expected a lot out of Clingan this season, and even though he’s offered some concerns in the health department, I still remain a big fan of his to stay within the lottery range. Clingan looks like a solid NBA big with nice strengths to become an immediate difference maker. He’s right up there with guys like Walker Kessler and Mitchell Robinson in terms of a lob threat/shot blocker/straight glass cleaner type, and he’s really come around more recently with UConn continuing to surge onto the tournament.
Clingan is not a perfect big man prospect. He’s proven through 2 seasons at UConn that he’s not a shooter and won’t ever be. He’s also got some more growth to do on both ends of the floor, particularly on offensive consistency at the NBA level. Still, as a strong rim protector and excellent physical scorer in the paint, he’s got plenty to offer with the right intangibles, touch, screening and bits of playmaking that can make him a pretty solid starting NBA big man akin to that of comparable archetypes, and that’s not even taking his upside into consideration when you have the gravity of of other great players around with versatility and passing, like SGA, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Josh Giddey and more. That’s big potential for lobs here. You do have to wonder about his health that might offer more and more concerns and eventually push him down the ranks when the pre-draft process begins, but if we’re talking pure skill, a big guy with a high motor, nice touch around the rim and translatable defensive skills that’s not afraid to get physical will always be in demand at this level.
Chicago Bulls: G/F Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor
Player Comparison(s): Tim Hardaway Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Gary Trent Jr.
The Bulls need a lot of help and a legitimate motive to push themselves into finally picking a lane. It’s long overdue after nearly three seasons of half measures, and I still don’t really know what the plan is despite a very promising future with Coby White as a leading man.
I’ll roll with the assumption that they still want to press on with the core for the time being (despite my transgressions), and I think Walter probably makes sense in that regard. Walter is one of the best shooters in the entire class when you consider his technical skills and scoring with his general NBA upside. I like what he can contribute right away that trails into a very positive-feeling ceiling, especially with a team that already has so many strong pieces. He’s a decent scorer right now with more room to grow, and we’ve seen in his big games that he can be a heater when he's’s hitting his stride both from outside and inside with his cutting. On the defensive end, he’s holding his own very well with an endless motor; one of the things that’s first popped for me is the constant movement and effort either way to impact the game and I like seeing how that motor translates.
Despite the sparks and pops from Walter, I worry he may lack the athleticism to be a constant threat at the rim and that could limit him to playing more outside and off-ball for a bit (which is fine). His shot selection early on left a lot to be desired for me that got better, but still will remain a concern of mine for how he translates efficiency-wise. His role feels very traceable with recent history of guards like him and it’s not hard to see the floor making a lot of sense for teams in need of shooting and guard consistency.
New Orleans Pelicans (via Los Angeles Lakers): G/F Dalton Knecht, Tennessee
Player Comparison(s): Klay Thompson, Mike Miller, Grayson Allen
Knecht has been nothing short of fantastic from start to finish this season for Tennessee. As a dynamite shooter and scorer, he’s been melting competition all year long and hitting shots consistently and efficiently. He’s becoming a fantastic movement shooter off screens, but he’s far from just a specialist: he’s been excellent as a cutter, he can finish and he can play off contact, giving him so much more at teams’ disposal than just some fancy heat checking. Plus, at 6’6”, he offers great size at both the 2 and 3 that can do the little things well, bolster shooting and offer some secondary playmaking next to a PG. Knecht is almost beat for beat what types of guys the New Orleans Pelicans like.
There are a few concerns about him as a defensive target that I felt about someone like Gradey Dick last season; for as feisty as they are, it’s not impossible to stop them if teams have the length on the wings and 2s to disrupt. On the other end, Knecht is also not a good defender as maybe one of the worst in this top fourth of the draft, and he’s going to be a big-time target on this end. It’s not the end of the world though, and I think a player as pro-ready and well-suited like him can learn to adjust laterally to become a decent team defender next to his other teammates in NOLA. Still, getting this great of a shooter could move mountains for this young team on the brink of building a real division shaker.
Portland Trail Blazers (via Golden State Warriors): F/C Kyle Filipowski, Duke
Player Comparison(s): Naz Reid, Kelly Olynyk, Kevin Love
There’s a lot of questions I have about the future direction of the Blazers outside of my addition of Cody Williams and their trio of budding stars (Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe) helmed by Thee Guy in Anfernee Simons. Jerami Grant has a strong role on this team, but for how long will he continue to be a key piece with his big contract? Same question goes for DeAndre Ayton, who’s looked pretty inconsistent and less than his former self that was looking like a potential star in Phoenix. Are they cornerstones? What about their questionable support pieces around the margins: Robert Williams and his concerning injury history, Matisse Thybulle’s defensive prowess with no offensive upside, the general wonder about Malcolm Brogdon’s future, so on and so forth.
I’m not going to overthink this one to a minute degree, so I’ll just go with who I think lends the most upside while not cutting into their key cogs and offering utility. I’ll go with a rangy stretch big with a 3-point shot: Kyle Filipowski. Filipowski doesn’t offer a whole lot on the defensive side yet, albeit some growth in his sophomore season, but he is a strong scorer who can score from beyond and inside the arc at a nice clip and pass a little bit. He reminds me a lot of a guy like Kelly Olynyk that can be crafty and versatile as an offensive piece and I think that’s someone who can always find his way into some minutes. He would slot in well both as a higher minute backup to Ayton and as someone who could play next to him. I’m intrigued by the fit and the potential he offers this unit with yet another shooting threat.
Toronto Raptors (via Indiana Pacers): F Tyler Smith, G League Ignite
Player Comparison(s): Trey Lyles, Brandon Clarke, Jabari Smith
Tyler Smith has taken advantage of the Ignite’s rough season and put together a big case to rise up into the 1st rounds community-wide, and he’s had plenty of staying power in this conversation. Some guys just have that smooth feel for a modern-day, pro-ready forward with plus upside, and Smith definitely has it.
For my money, Smith has one of the more interesting floors of any prospect in the upper half of this first round. There’s no question in my mind that Smith is a lock to be an immediate rotation-level piece on almost any team in the NBA that takes him. One of the things you immediately notice about him both on tape and in person is he’s got really excellent processing speed and versatility that makes him a strong offensive asset. He’s not a great defender yet as a PF, but he’s showing flashes and plenty of aptitude to cover the ground over time. There’s a lot of pops when he plays in real time and he has a really smooth feel for the game, something that really cannot be ignored in a class with a lot of question marks. The bottom line for Smith is that he just works in today’s NBA: he’s tall (6’10”), he can shoot, he’s switchable, he’s good at being physical, he’s a really good athlete, he has a strong feel for NBA speed and he has the swing skills to be a really good player in the NBA. If he can become a really good defender, there’s A TON to unlock for him in an ecosystem like Toronto and for Darko Rajakovic’s heavy flowing offense that should get it to Smith often.
Miami Heat: G Isaiah Collier, USC
Player Comparison(s): Eric Bledsoe, Raymond Felton, bulkier Stephon Marbury/Steve Francis
To say it’s been a nightmare of a season for USC and everyone involved is a grave understatement at this point. Make no mistake, Collier is probably the most talented player on the team if we’re judging by NBA-projectable talent, but there’s still a lot of questions about him. My concerns continue to grow as Collier’s skill and higher scoring has hardly moved the needle in a lot of USC’s bad losses and had a few instances of disappearing in others. Still, for the combination of his upside and floor as a capable point guard, I like him just outside the lottery range for a team like the Miami Heat to develop someone who’s already playing with a dawg factor.
Collier is a hard-nosed, physical guard with some high-level playmaking and interior scoring. We’ve seen him comfortable playing through contact in spades, and his athleticism offers good (but not great) burst, pacing and movement with and without the ball in his hands. He’s already flashed a lot of good playmaking stuff that teams will be looking at, including his vision, processing speed and beginnings of improving his reads. He’s not all there as a PnR guard quite yet, but he’s undoubtedly showing potential for it. Still, one of my chief concerns even dating back to high school in his 3-point shooting has still failed to come along; 0.9 makes is progress, but being just a slight hair over 30% on that clip for this entire season is suboptimal. The turnovers (3.4 per game) also leave a lot to tinker with on his reads and processing. Still, there is a lot here and I could easily see Collier claiming a good spot on a lot of teams over time.
New York Knicks (via Dallas Mavericks): G/F Johnny Furphy, Kansas
Player Comparison: Josh Giddey (as a wing), Trey Murphy III
It’s hard to find a real 1:1 comp or even something close for Furphy as a 6’8-6’9” big wing, something we don’t often see at the NBA level with this type of range and overall athleticism. After a slow start at Kansas, he’s been on fire these last two months of the season and continually looking like one of the most talented players on Kansas’ squad right now. He’s got such a unique feel for the game that gives me some intrigue about his ability to improve his playmaking, and with his excellent 3-point range, efficient scoring, solid athleticism and speed, he’s got so much natural talent and positive skillsets to bring over immediately to the NBA.
There are still the obvious concerns about how young Furphy is and the potential that his hot shooting might be a bit fluky, and as I alluded to earlier, the playmaking and ability to create for himself still needs some time. He’s also a bit thin for his height, and I think he would benefit from a bigger frame to finish through contact better at the next level. Still, Furphy is impressing at the highest level with one of the biggest schools in the country and the natural talent just oozes from him every time he steps onto the court. Just off his upside alone and what he could become in a few years’ time, he’s well worth a selection in the top 20.
Orlando Magic: New Orleans Pelicans: G, G/F Kyshawn George, Miami
Player Comparison(s): Cameron Johnson, Dyson Daniels with shooting
The Orlando Magic need to keep shoring up their depth and shooting with high-quality pieces. There’s a lot of fun upside swings they can take that are exactly their type of guy, and Kyshawn George feels like a strong move to see what sticks.
Not only is George playing at a pretty high level recently with Miami, but he’s doing so pretty efficiently and with a very enticing skillset as a jumbo guard-wing with really good ball handling and some impressive shooting. He’s currently connecting on 41.3% of 3s on the year with 4.1 attempts per game and you can see his slew of unique skills pop all over the tape. He just oozes pure talent and someone could be very, very happy investing time and resources into such a brilliant skillset for the modern NBA.
George definitely has some concerns, as he’s not your normal freshman and will be 21 in December 2025. He’s also had his shares of inconsistent performances where you can see he needs some tuning, and he really needs to work on finding better ways to use his physicality and height (6’7”-6’8”). Still, this type of player is not easy to find and can reap substantial benefits in a fully idealized version.
Philadelphia 76ers: G/F Kevin McCullar Jr., Kansas
Player Comparison(s): Bruce Brown, Dillon Brooks, Kris Murray-ish
McCullar looks like one of the most well-oiled players coming into the NBA in this cycle. He’s really on the come up this season at Kansas with how versatile he’s become as a two-way wing, especially on as a 3-point shooter and defender. His stats have been regularly impressive all season and it’s nice to see the assists going pretty darn high with 4.1 on the year. He’s got plenty of skills to be ready to contribute to a win-now team and he has the versatility to become a viable do-it-all, two-way piece.
Still, he’s now a 5th year senior turning 23 by the end of March 2024 and even though he’s really pieced it together with a career year, this is the first time he’s really exploded past 11 PPG in his last four seasons. For as versatile as he’s looked this season, there’s still a lack of one or two particular skills he really excels at at a high level. He gives me slight Kris Murray vibes of last season if you remember him at Iowa as a Master of None type of player. Still, he can find his way with his versatile set of skills and I like his upside at the NBA level, but it will be something to watch for.
Atlanta Hawks (via Sacramento Kings): G/F Ryan Dunn, Virginia
Player Comparison(s): Herbert Jones, Otto Porter Jr.
I’m trying to keep away from a lot of fantasy talk in this mock, but Ryan Dunn demands the mention for how incredible he is as a defender. Dunn is having one of the best CBB defensive seasons we’ve seen in a very long time and some of the most impressive steal and block metrics I’ve seen. This guy is just a lockdown defender straight up and down and he’s going to be a menace at the next level. He’s ferocious on the glass, on the perimeter, literally anywhere he needs to be and he’s there. This is your fantasy darling that’s going to rain stocks like there’s no tomorrow, and he looks like an immediate Herbert Jones-level terrorizer that isn’t far from being a legitimate All-Defensive candidate in his first couple seasons.
The biggest glaring problem is that Dunn just isn’t much of an offensive player. Sure, he has his moments of slight scoring pops, such as his career-high 19 points against Louisville in January 2024, but he’s not often taking many shots and I don’t see it coming much at the next level. His 8.6 points and 7 rebounds is nothing to look down on, but I have a lot of questions about how much he can offer outside of the defense, especially since he’s not a shooter. You do have to wonder if he ends up more as a rotational piece. Still, when you’re at this high of a level as a defender, maybe it just won’t matter when you can do what you do, and especially when you have plenty of firepower in a team like Atlanta.
New York Knicks: F Bobi Klintman, Cairns (NBL)
Player Comparison: Nic Batum, DeAndre Hunter, Kyle Kuzma
It’s been a very fascinating path for Klintman since the rumors of a mystery team giving him a guarantee in the 2023 NBA Draft and him eventually foregoing his time at Wake Forest to join the NBL. A lot of what we had to go off of in Wake Forest was what he *could* be for lack of opportunity, but now that we’ve seen a good sample size of a bigger role in Cairns, I’m pretty intrigued about his upside.
As a big combo forward at 6’10” who can knock down 3s, he’s done a great job of it this season (35.7% from 3 on 3.6 attempts) while adding some bits of ball handling, floor spacing and plus defense. He’s got a lot to love with his height, defensive versatility with a 7-foot plus wingspan, shotmaking and mobility that makes him very malleable at the next level. He’s added some passing to his toolbox this season, but while I think that skill, his feel for the game and his overall talent will require some sharpening and development to be NBA-ready, it’s hard not to come away impressed by the pure talent. Whoever takes a swing on him can hopefully count on unlocking a very good, high-level starter for the long haul. I don’t know if I trust that the Knicks will be using both their first round picks, but if they do, I love this swing for them.
New Orleans Pelicans: C Yves Missi, Baylor
Player Comparison(s): DeAndre Ayton, Nerlens Noel with a better offensive game
Current starting big Jonas Valanciunas is hitting free agency this summer and there’s a real need for a long-term prospect who can play really well with Zion Williamson at the 4. Granted, he’s still been playing well at his role and fits with this squad, life after JV should be well within the plans after rumblings of him being available for trades in recent seasons.
Considering that and the general needs that New Orleans has after addressing shooting with Knecht earlier, I think Missi makes plenty of sense with their first pick. He’s a solid, more “typical” 5 (whatever that means in the NBA, circa 2024) with excellent mobility and has really exciting upside as a rim protector with some legitimate ball handling that’s appearing in flashes. He offers a strong edge as a bruiser type and I think he can easily come in and secure a role for what he is. There’s so much here to love right this second as he’s really risen throughout this freshman season at Baylor and seems to have plenty more to get excited over for his long-term potential. In an organization that’s been very good with development in recent years, this feels like a slam dunk of a pick to make New Orleans better and better for the future in finding the right front court pieces to keep building on.
Phoenix Suns: G Devin Carter, Providence
Player Comparison(s): De’Anthony Melton, Cason Wallace, Jrue Holiday-lite
I’m loving Providence’s Devin Carter this season and think he’s easily established himself as a bonafide first round pick. There’s a lot of spots he could fit pretty well in, but there’s one in this range that could be a match made in Heaven in Phoenix.
The Junior combo guard has been excellent this season, posting an impressive 18 PPG, 8 RPG, 3.5 AST and 1.7 SPG. It’s no secret that Carter has taken a really nice step up as a scorer this season, but he’s also having a fantastic defensive season and looks like one of the best guard defenders in college basketball right now. He reminds me a lot of high-energy defenders like Cason Wallace and Jrue Holiday, and he has a smooth handle and playmaking ability that makes him a strong two-way threat. I do have some questions about his shooting in particular, and although he’s taken a nice step this season up to 38.6% on the season (2.5 makes on 6.4 attempts), he hasn’t been a great shooter in his past 2 seasons of college ball. However, on a team loaded with shooting and overall talent (Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Grayson Allen), it’s easy to see Carter coming along nicely being asked to fill more of a rotation playmaker/POA defender in the same mold I thought Jordan Goodwin could’ve gotten to this season.
Washington Wizards (via Los Angeles Clippers, from Oklahoma City Thunder): G Tyler Kolek, Marquette
Player Comparison: TJ McConnell, Tyus Jones
This might be an odd one for the Wizards as they aim to rebuild, but I think there might be something wise in adding a pro-ready leader who easily raises the floor for the young and struggling guys around him. Kolek has gotten better and better as the season pushes on for Marquette, and he’s once again commanding their offense sitting among the upper echelon of D1 offenses for 3 seasons in a row now. He might be a bit older as he turns 23 in March 2024 and is lacking in physical and athlete traits, but don’t let that fool you into thinking the upside isn’t all there, like I falsely started to think early on.
Kolek has capital E Elite feel for the game honed in one of the most pro-stylized and efficient offenses in college ball. Marquette is regularly under the microscope for tough scheduling and tournament appearances, and yet he's continued to prove his importance to this team time and time again. Kolek’s just got it all going for him: elite passing and playmaking, can create for himself, can shoot the 3 pretty well, can score in the lanes, can defend at a high level, plays above his size both ways at 6’3” and has great tempo. It’s hard to say how far he can really go without a lot of athleticism or physicality to work with, but smart floor generals with a whole arsenal of tricks like him are always able to find a way. This good of a feel cannot be ignored, and for a team without the experience or feel like Washington, I think this could be a great opportunity to get someone who can truly lead both on and off the court.
Milwaukee Bucks: C Kel’el Ware, Indiana
Player Comparison(s): Wendell Carter Jr.
Kel’el Ware has had a few inconsistent games and full halves here and there that make me wonder what to expect at the next level, but in a big sophomore come-up after a rough freshman season with Oregon that saw him struggling for minutes, he’s made a lot of strides as a good floor spacer, interior scorer, shot blocker and rim protector that can make him a solid piece. I’m liking the looks with his shooting and the other means he can score with that makes him versatile, and his pick-and-roll skills as such a fluid and powerful athlete will help with the offensive progress. He can even pass a little bit which always intrigues me.
Still, there are concerns that have pushed him further down many others’ boards that I can get. As I alluded to earlier, he definitely has games where he just disappears on both sides of the ball and fails to really get it rolling against other physical players. Moreover, I also have my share of concerns about his thinner frame on both sides that absolutely makes him a target that others (such as Zach Edey in January 2024’s loss vs. Purdue) can exploit at the next level. I’ve seen a good amount of sloppy play as well that gives me more questions about his early floor than I had early on. Still, life after Brook Lopez is coming up, and finding long-term upside and stability in Ware feels like a good investment.
Cleveland Cavaliers: F/C PJ Hall, Clemson
Player Comparison(s): Zach Collins, Trey Lyles, Larry Nance Jr.
PJ Hall is going to be a fan favorite of this class for fantasy and draft sickos and I’m so curious where he ends up. Some guys just ooze talent and have that It Factor that makes them a valuable piece, and Hall is exactly that as a bit of a Jack of All Trades/Swiss Army knife type of player. This is exactly the type of complimentary guy who can and will make a strong impact for a heavy playoff contender like the Cavs.
As a four-year guy at Clemson, it’s been impressive to see him grow into a straight pro in these last two seasons as Clemson’s best prospect in some time. He just turned 22 this week, so the learning curve should be expectedly low as a generality. As I alluded to earlier, he’s got plenty of tools that will make him valuable out the gate: he’s massive at 6’10”, he can space the floor, he can shoot the heck out of the ball (despite some concerns), he can defend pretty well both on the perimeter and at the rim, and more than anything, he just has a steady feel and NBA-level motor that should keep him very active constantly. It’s very easy to carve out a role with even just a few of these skills, but with the combination, it’s easy to get excited.
Not everything is perfect here, however. The skill is very nice, but Hall’s had some slight dips in his 3-point shooting. His 39.8% from 3 last season (1 3PTM/2.5 3PTA) has dipped to 32.8% this season (1.5 3PTM/4.7 3PTA) with more volume in the absence of F Hunter Tyson joining the Denver Nuggets this season. He’s also lacking in verticality as a 4-5 that likely makes him much more of a below-the-rim player. It’s not a total indictment by any means and I do think he has alright athleticism and great floor spacing to fill in gaps, but it is something that might limit his total upside when we’re considering someone in a tweener spot/Small Ball 5 at his height. Even with that, the sheer strength and big frame with his length and mobility should be more than able to help cover the difference, and we’ve seen it often this season at Clemson that proves he should be well-equipped. For a team on the cutting edge of a two-big setup with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen and experience with versatile pieces, Hall should be well-suited for a role on a team like Cleveland.
Denver Nuggets: F/C DaRon Holmes II, Dayton
Player Comparison(s): Daniel Gafford, Nic Claxton-ish
The Denver Nuggets have had a pretty darn good season with no hangover to be found after their 2022-2023 championship win. They’ve remained steady all season as the 4th seed in the tight upper half of the Western conference and they’ve gotten a lot of nice stuff out of their starters and bench unit.There’s not much the team really needs at this point considering the addition of some nice long-term rotation pieces this past draft (Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, Hunter Tyson), but the one thing that could do with a long-term answer is a backup big for when 2x MVP C Nikola Jokic is off the floor, and I don’t think longtime journeyman DeAndre Jordan and Zeke Nnaji will ever be it.
Enter Holmes, the guy I’d consider to be one of the best fits for what the Nuggets need in a low-minute rim protector who can do a bit of everything and give a positive stopgap for the 2nd unit. He’s not a very nuanced offensive player that can do a lot of scoring outside the post, paint and at the rim, but he does a darn good job of that and he plays hard in that range of scoring. On the defensive end, Holmes reminds me so much of someone like Daniel Gafford in terms of his rim protection, timing, shot blocking abilities and all-around impact that just knows how to play his role well. He’s the perfect kind of guy you can give a small role to and keep you steady when Jokic is off the floor and with the possibility of *maybe* being able to play at the 4 next to Jokic. It’s not a sexy pick, but it is a great around-the-margins move for cheap depth over these next few years while Jokic and Jamal Murray are in their primes.
Utah Jazz (via Oklahoma City Thunder): G/F Jaylon Tyson, California
Player Comparison: Dillon Brooks, Gordon Hayward-ish
Jaylon Tyson feels like a pretty solid deal in this range if we’re looking ahead to where he could be at the NBA level, and for a team with looming questions across the roster, this feels like a solid investment to secure more long-term pieces.
His floor feels pretty darn excellent if he hits the league right this second, and I’m really digging the junior season he’s having as a two-way wing with plenty of ball handling, creativity as a scorer, slasher and on-ball player and looks pretty well-rounded as a whole. He’s been handling a pretty giant load this season and remained pretty efficient doing so on staggering 30.1% usage. I have some questions about him on what should likely be an off-ball role early on and how he maintains that level of efficiency and overall skills, but even then, I think the combination of floor, upside, strength of play in a big role and his overall body of work is just too strong to pass up in the end of the 1st round.
Minnesota Timberwolves: G Jared McCain, Duke
Player Comparison(s): Gabe Vincent, Hornets Tre Mann, Landry Shamet
He’s had his ups and downs this season, but I think it’s pretty obvious McCain has some very legitimate talent and his shotmaking really impresses when he gets hot.
Despite my concerns as an overall player at the guard spot and some pretty underwhelming athleticism and physical traits, McCain is loaded with shooting upside, from his actual self-creation to his super-fast release. He’s also shown some flashes of being able to create for others at times, plus some improvements to his handle and ball security. He’s also just played very efficiently and in a well-established role and makes a real impact even when he’s not hitting shots. As I said, I do have some concerns about what he can be as a combo guard and what we can expect as a full package, but I think the shotmaking and pure skill as a scorer is enough to sell me on a pretty decent outcome for McCain at the next level. We’ve seen some success in this type of guy like Gabe Vincent, Landry Shamet and (most recently) Tre Mann, albeit some of their overall floor concerns, but I think there’s more to add to his full outlook beyond just being a bucket.
Boston Celtics: F Tristan Da Silva, Colorado
Player Comparison(s): Jake LaRavia +, Thaddeus Young
As one of the old guard on a quite young team (headlined by the freshman Cody Williams), Da Silva has looked steady in his role as a big forward with very legit shooting and a bit of everything in his toolkit. I’ve seen some fun passing abilities intermingled with his ability to drive and finish at the rim, and the shooting and defense is very appealing in terms of overall feel and fit.
Da Silva offers a lot of questions about his lack of finesse and the limitations he might have at the next level, particularly with his lack of athleticism. He doesn’t really have a lot of verticality to his game as a finisher and he’s slower footed than you’d like for his position, which may project odd at the next level if he does operate wholly below the rim. These things may cap his upside and separate him from ever being a high-level player, but even still, he’s got the right feel, motor and total package you like in someone who meshes into a rotation pretty quickly in the NBA. I’m eager to see him translate as a potentially immediate depth piece for the championship contending Celtics.
Round 2
Utah Jazz (via Washington Wizards): G Trey Alexander, Creighton
Player Comparison(s): Malik Monk, Terry Rozier
Alexander is a pretty solid two-way guard who thrives in a team-centric role. He’s not really showing to be a great takeover guy when leading the charge offensively, but that shouldn’t be much of an issue on a team that’s both rebuilding and trying to find their overall structure and rhythm.
Alexander can, however, play his role well as a nice tempo guard with high energy and really good shooting and I could see him fitting in as a catch-and-shoot threat that can play off the ball, and he’s already become a great table setter for big lob threats (something that should suit him well for Walker Kessler and John Collins). He’s also a really solid guard defender with a giant wingspan, which makes him viable as an early-rung rotation piece to balance with Keyonte George and others. There will be some questions about where he slides in with Jordan Clarkson still on the team and how things function early on with guard rotations, but I don’t think it will take him long to become useful on a team like this.
Toronto Raptors (via Detroit Pistons): G/F Jamir Watkins, FSU
Player Comparison(s): Vince Williams Jr.
There’s a very, very good chance we’re going to see Jamir Watkins going pretty high in the 2nd round. I had questions early on if Watkins’ improvements and high marks of his career were more because of Baba Miller’s struggles rather than in spite of them, but I think it’s become pretty clear it’s more of the latter. Watkins is a dawg and looking like a solid NBA player.
The NBA is loving do-it-all wings these days. Guys who are big, shoot, rebound, pass a little, shoot a little and offer strong stability in supporting roles are needed on literally every team, and it’s not hard to see Watkins fitting into this mold pretty strongly. He’s really impressed me a lot this season after departing from VCU, and as a junior, he’s been a steady piece in Leonard Hamilton’s offense as easily their best offensive option all year. He’s super athletic and has some really exciting verticality that’s going to make him a fun energy guy. On the defensive end, he’s proven to be pretty pesky both on and off the ball and I see a lot of versatility to him as a two-way piece. He’s not connecting on a lot of 3s yet, and even though the 1 make on 2.4 attempts is a positive step forward, he’s not going to be a heavy hitter from the arc. Still, there’s a lot to really like here and I think a team like Toronto would benefit a lot from another do-it-all guy that can ebb and flow well in Darko Rajakovic’s offense.
San Antonio Spurs: F/C Oso Ighodaro, Marquette
Player Comparison: Larry Nance Jr., Kevon Looney
So far, I’ve slated the San Antonio Spurs to heavily invest in the guard and shooting departments with both Topic and Sheppard in the lottery. Next up, I’ll go with Oso Ighodaro, who offers a good balance at the big spot to play with and behind Wemby as a more traditional bruiser big that might need addressing with sketchiness on Zach Collins and the future spot.
Marquette’s Oso Ighodaro feels like a good box checker for a rotation type of role. He can defend well enough at the rim and on the perimeter, he’s a nice rebounder, he has good athleticism and above-the-rim play, he can be a lob threat with versatility on both ends and he offers nice floor spacing as both a passer and a screener. I like the potential he has as a versatile backup to someone like Wemby to play down and dirty, something teams can always benefit from.
Portland Trail Blazers (via Charlotte Hornets): G/F Melvin Ajinca, St. Quentin (France)
Player Comparison(s): Taurean Prince, Danny Green
Melvin Ajinca has really fascinated for a long time during this draft cycle on both ends of the spectrum. On one hand, he’s got great size and athleticism as a wing, he rebounds and defends well, and he’s already looking like a net positive on both ends of the floor against grown men in France at 19. I think the upside should indicate that he’s got the juice to move past your typical 3&D prospects who can bring it both ways, comparable to that of Taurean Prince or Danny Green. That’s something valuable for a team like Portland going forward.
However, some of my concerns are starting to grow about what he can be and what the NBA might hold for him. He’s been pretty exclusive to a spot-up shooter and 3PT specialist type, he strongly lacks self-creation that I just don’t know if I really buy coming for a while (if ever), and his athleticism is fine but not great enough to be a blow-by slasher or driver yet. Most concerning of all for me is that he’s not a willing passer or all-around skilled player yet, as he’s only recorded one single assist in a game since November 25, 2023. No, that’s not an exaggeration either. His only assist in three full months came on February 13. He’s also only recorded 17 assists in 27 total games in 2023-2024. Even still, he’s got time to grow as a player especially with Portland having the capacity in their new G League squad.
Milwaukee Bucks (via Portland Trail Blazers): G/F Wooga Poplar, Miami
Player Comparison(s): Wesley Matthews, Josh Richardson
He’s dropped a tiny bit in the draft conversation with the recent emergence of Kyshawn George, but let’s not forget about Poplar, one of the more exciting shotmakers and fun, easily projectable rotation pieces in this range. The Bucks will once again have some tough questions to face this offseason depending on how far they go with Doc Rivers at the end here. One definite element to address will be depth and shooting with all of Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder and Patrick Beverley hitting free agency.
Poplar has been money from 3 this season, hitting 41.4% from 3 on 5.6 attempts despite some recent slumping. He’s also become really good handling the ball, being able to create shots and spaces for himself, pass a little, defend and can use his athleticism well. Adding a good, pro-ready depth piece with a high level of shooting and readiness is always in demand at the NBA level for contenders, and Poplar should be an easy fit.
Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis Grizzlies): F Dillon Jones, Weber State
Player Comparison(s): Grant Williams with better defense, David Roddy
Dillon Jones has easily been among the best mid-major players this season for Weber State and definitely one of the most oddball players in this draft cycle. As a 6’6” wing-forward built like a unit akin to someone like David Roddy, he's undersized at the 4 where he has the most experience and also can’t play above the rim much, if at all. He’s also got legitimate ball handling and passing skills, he slashes and drives to the rim really effectively that makes him tough to hang with physically and he’s able to generate a lot of offense from the pick and roll. This season at Weber State, he’s been in the upper echelon of the entire NCAA as a scorer and rebounder. There’s a lot here to really be intrigued by.
The biggest questions will ultimately come from his ability to scale his game down from being someone who plays on-ball a ton to an off-ball role. Granted, with skills as a self-creator and versatile player despite his height at the 4, there’s definitely some more to his game than suggests he could be more than just a rotation player. Also, while he’s showing he can shoot a little with 1.1 makes on 3.4 attempts this season, he’s still only attempting 5.6 threes per 100 possessions on this level of usage and skill. The 3PT shooting will be a big swing skill on what he can really do at the next level. Even with the concerns, someone like the Timberwolves could definitely find something in him as a cheap rotation piece for the next few years who can contribute now.
Philadelphia 76ers (via Toronto Raptors): F/C Izan Almansa, G League Ignite
Player Comparison(s): Marvin Bagley III, Al Horford-lite, Richaun Holmes
Almansa might not be the flashiest or most offensively inclined big yet, but the upside is tremendous as a high-energy lob threat with more to him that should intrigue teams. At 6’10”, Almansa is showing a good twitches laterally that make for a powerful athletic big and I really like how effective he works as a cutter and roller to the basket. He’s physical, has a good touch and has very strong footwork for his size. He’s also making some good strides as a defender and has a lot of skills on that end to play himself into minutes. There may be some questions about his size and positional fit if he sits more in the 6’8”-6’9” range than 6’10” and up, but it’s not hard to imagine that he possesses the legitimate skills as a two-way player on his way to developing more. The biggest key I can see to making a really sizable jump is improving as a PnR roll-man that he already has the fluidity to handle it and sustain a better offensive role.
There are some definite concerns I have about Almansa, some that have been answered and some that I’m still wondering, particularly as a full offensive player. Despite positive metrics in his finishing with the Ignite at 57.6%, he’s still not shooting from range much (0.1 makes on 0.6 attempts from 3) and I don’t know how much he can realistically do it at the next level despite the flashes in high school. He’s also not a blow-by athlete for someone who might have to play the 4 more often than the 5, but it may not matter much just considering how good his feel is on the defensive end and how refined his instincts are for an 18-year old of his size. The fluidity is just off the charts and there is undeniably so much talent here for a team to unlock. I think Almansa would be an excellent player to develop as a backup versatile big to Joel Embiid.
Memphis Grizzlies: F/C Zvonimir Ivisic, Kentucky
Player Comparison(s): Zydrunas Ilgauskas? Young Kristaps Porzingis?
Let’s throw out a possible curveball VERY heavy on the “What If” factor. Is Ivisic likely a super late 1st-early 2nd type of guy? Maybe, maybe not. Is the upside worthy of it? I sure think it could be.
Not everything’s perfect about this when we consider how little we’ve seen of Ivisic yet that suggests he could consider staying for 2025. He’s now played 121 total minutes of Kentucky basketball as of this weekend and only has 11 total game appearances as of writing this. His peaks have felt pretty boom-bust despite how excellent the booms are looking, and it feels like Calipari still has plans for him to come along. He was just ruled eligible almost 2 month ago, mind you.
Forget all that for a moment. We have some stretch 5s and traditional 5s in this draft, but Ivisic is the best of both worlds as a legit stretch 5 with a fiery shooting streak AND can play physically and hang tough at the rim. He’s no elite athlete, but he’s more than good enough in that department, he’s mobile, he can play above the rim, AND he can also pass the ball and dribble. Like, this guy has skills you see in the best of them. I’m not gonna say he IS or WILL be among that group, as he’s still got to sharpen these skills, but having this combination as a baseline at age 20 is very, very exciting. It remains to be seen what, really, Ivisic is, and it would really be something to watch his development come along if he does enter. Memphis has started to became really good as a developmental organization with a history of prioritizing and rewarding their guys on the come-up, and I think an environment with the resources willing to heavily invest in Ivisic would rock for him.
Charlotte Hornets (via Houston Rockets): G/F, F Kwame Evans Jr.
Player Comparison(s): Raw Jalen Johnson, Kyle Anderson
Kwame Evans Jr. is an exciting player that I could easily see going higher if we’re learning to look past the red flags and just swing on the upside and versatility.
As a rangy wing-forward with great measurables (6’9” and 7’-plus wingspan), he has a lot of plus swing skills that could help him develop into something really interesting. He’s still raw offensively, but he’s showing some legit ball handling skills and has potential in a point-forward type of role in the same mold of a Jalen Johnson/Aaron Gordon/Kyle Anderson type of guy. He’s also got some shooting to build on and really interesting defensive stats for a wing-forward (1.2 blocks and 1.4 steals). He definitely needs to find some more overall offensive consistency, add some bulk to his frame to become stronger and just needing time to develop. I think he’s realistically a year or so away from making a real impact on most teams, but an idealized version is very exciting and I like what’s here in his current tools. His best game of the season came in an upset victory against USC, where Evans posted a brilliant 22 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 3 3-pointers, showing just how darn versatile he can be.
Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta Hawks): F Pacome Dadiet, Ratiopharm Ulm
Player Comparison(s): Aaron Nesmith
In 2023, the Trail Blazers launched their G-League affiliate to join 28 of 30 other teams (Suns will be the last in 2024-2025, hopefully) to host an in-house group of developmental pieces and other players outside of the main NBA circuit. As someone who’s been a fan of Portland’s development staff, I like the opportunity for them to keep swinging on high-upside picks while they rebuild, and I love them taking a chance on Pacome Dadiet in this range.
Dadiet might feel a bit standard as a 3&D guy right now, but he’s got a lot of exciting juice that should help him develop into a quality forward piece for Portland as they look to expand their depth quality. The French forward is a strong and big shotmaker who’s connecting really well on 3s and has been boosting his defensive credibility and technical skills this season. I see him in a similar light to Aaron Nesmith as a strong off-ball scorer and movement shooter with pretty high energy and we know how valuable guys like that can be in fully formed states. He projects really well defensively and at age 18, he looks like a pretty good player to start building up despite some of the rawness to his game. I really like the long-term upside in Dadiet for a team with a lot of needs and time.
New York Knicks (via Utah Jazz): F/C Adem Bona, UCLA
Player Comparison(s): Xavier Tillman, Precious Achiuwa, Usman Garuba+
Bona has taken a nice step forward this season after returning to UCLA despite interest in the 2023 NBA Draft. Along with continuing to sharpen his rebounding and shot blocking, he’s taken a nice step forward as a scorer on higher volume. He’s a freak athlete from top to bottom, and even with his 6’10” 235-pound frame, he’s absurdly fast and with a surprising twitch to his game. His fluidity extends both ways as both a scorer and defender, and it’s easy to see how Bona can offer a lot of value as a cutter and operating in transition. His 7’4” wingspan makes his play at the rim and as a lob threat easy. He’s a very physical player and knows how to play off contact. His high motor pops on tape and it’s clear that his high energy and versatility is what will really help him secure backup roles hopefully early on.
Of course, there is still some rawness to his game that we saw a bit last season and spoke to him returning to UCLA. He’s also a bit limited as a scorer with most of his scoring done in the lanes and in the paint; this isn’t necessarily a bad thing since he does it considerably well, but that and his stats do the paint the picture that he may never be a strong floor stretcher or have much of a 3-point shot despite decent form and prior experience in shooting the occasional 3 before college. He also will need to clean up on foul trouble and improve his defensive technique to stay on the court. Still, there’s a lot to like about what Bona can be and grow into with some further development. He’s come along nicely and should immediately come in as an elite athlete/high-motor bruiser.
Boston Celtics (via Chicago Bulls): G/F Alex Karaban, UConn
Player Comparison(s): Sam Hauser, Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson
Alex Karaban is the type of glue guy I could see any team valuing in the NBA since he’s such a winning type of piece: excellent shooting, good size, good defender and isn’t going to get played off the floor. This type of guy is always in demand and always going to find a real role, and when you find one as pro-ready as him in UConn’s style of offense, it’s easy to trust in what’s here.
Perhaps one of the best pure shooters in the class, Karaban will be a “rich get richer” type of player for a contender like the Knicks to streamline more long-term depth on cheap deals as the salary cap grows every season. He’s got nice size and length to defend at a decent level, and he can also provide a little passing and self-creation to make shots for himself and some for others effectively. He doesn’t quite have a lot of athleticism or pop to his profile, but with a shooting calling card this good, he’ll do just fine at the next level.
San Antonio Spurs: G, G/F Adama Bal, Santa Clara
Player Comparison(s): Shake Milton with higher upside, Dalano Banton+
Herb Sendek is cooking something special in Santa Clara as one of the more intriguing programs in the last few years. So far, Thunder G/F Jalen Williams and G Brandin Podziemski are both looking like major steals well on their way to bright futures and they might have another coming in Adama Bal.
While not being as flashy or sharp-looking from an NBA-level lens yet, Bal possesses a lot of intriguing tools that teams might take an interest in. He’s got that jumbo guard-wing appeal at 6’7”, he’s starting to take more 3s and look pretty decent doing it, he’s a decent scorer and playmaker with a handle and he’s showing more overall consistency. There’s a lot that I feel teams will need to tinker with in order to fully flesh him out (most notably as a defender, consistency in passing, finding an ideal role early on) but it’s obvious why many are viewing him even being a first-round player. I’m very interested to keep diving into his tape and see what teams think of him in the pre-draft process, as he seems like the type to make a big push in workouts.
Houston Rockets (via Golden State Warriors): C Zach Edey, Purdue
Player Comparison(s): Boban, Ivica Zubac-lite
Look, there’s a lot of talk about Zach Edey possibly being a first rounder in this draft, and I just can’t bring myself to do it. I’m sorry. I just can’t. That being said, there is zero question in my mind that Edey will be drafted at this point just to see what’s what about him. He might be pretty old school and slow-footed that gives a lot of questions about what, if any, role can be found in the modern-day NBA. In theory, he may be an awkward fit that might be barbecue chicken against competition. Still, when you’re legitimately in the top 1% of pure rebounders in the entire basketball world and one of the tallest guys out there, maybe it doesn’t really matter?
Let’s be fair here, too: despite my criticisms above, there is a lot of things Edey has shown to do well. He’s got a surprisingly nice touch around the rim with a few little finesse moves in hook shots and finishes, and he’s turned into a relatively good free throw shooter at his position that draws fouls well. He’s got good energy, he’s not very athletic speed wise but makes up for it in physicality, and as a lane clogger and lock-and-load rim anchor, he can easily make himself useful as a defender even if his up-down verticality and footwork could make him vulnerable. I mean, the guy is 7’4” and 300 pounds, so it’s not like you can really stop him if he gets in front of you. He’s also quite literally having one of the best seasons in college basketball history, so it would be hard to believe he can’t do at least *something* in today’s league, even as an energy bench big or a small per-minute contributor. He’s a lot more projectable as a full-time pro than someone like Drew Timme or Oscar Tshiebwe and I think that’s easy to see.
It really remains to be seen where he goes in this draft, and truthfully, it could be anywhere. I’ve seen anywhere from lottery rumblings to going undrafted. I’m happy to fit in somewhere in the middle as a legit 2nd rounder to a team like the Rockets, who could actually get some good use out of a backup big man . We’ll just have to see how it goes.
Los Angeles Clippers (via Indiana Pacers): G Hunter Sallis, Wake Forest
Player Comparison(s): Poor Man’s D’Angelo Russell, Tre Mann, Bryn Forbes
Hunter Sallis’ draft stock is going to heat up a lot these next few weeks, and his new status as a Duke killer should help with a massive 29-point performance to knock No. 8 Duke down right before March. Regardless of this, Sallis is on a great path to become an NBA-level player with a huge breakout junior season at Wake Forest. As a combo guard, Sallis has been an absolute heater all season, posting 18.7 points per game on some very efficient shooting splits (51.4% FG, 43.5% 3PT on 5.4 attempts, and 78.6% FT). The shotmaking is pretty darn great and I have to believe he’s going to make his bread on being a strong catch-and-shoot threat at the next level. He’s also displaying a lot more of a bag than I originally expected with some nice floaters, slashing moves, drives and high-level shots he can create on his own.
Sallis is also showing more poise as an on-ball player, but I think he’s better suited as an off-ball guard due to his turnovers and occasional lack of control on the ball. For that matter, he’s also small for a wing at 6’5” and with his frame, which probably limits him to being a 2 most times. He’s also fine as a team defender and even showed to be a really good one at times at Gonzaga, but a bigger role has shown some of that to fall off at Wake Forest. Still, Sallis is younger for a junior at 20 right now, and he has time to learn more. I think a rotation role is something he can easily achieve with the right opportunities and development available to him. This level of shotmaking isn’t something to scoff at.
Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks): G Ajay Mitchell, UC Santa Barbara
Player Comparison(s): Mavs Jalen Brunson, Brandin Podziemski
The degenerate in me loves the mid-major quality of this class and it thrills me to see the love growing for UC Santa Barbara’s Ajay Mitchell as the season progresses. He’s really impressed me with his ball handling, shotmaking and great multi-level scoring abilities to finish and pull up from all over. He just knows how to score at will and does so at a high level with 19.5 PPG on the season. At 6’5”, he’s also got great size and knows how to use it to his advantage both as a scorer and lead handler. It’s kind of baffling to see him hovering over 30% usage all year, yet only averaging 2.3 turnovers per game. He’s smart and creative in the same way we’ve seen guys like Jalen Brunson (especially in his Mavs days) and Brandin Podziemski play and how they operate as ball handlers and scorers in their smaller minutes, and the talent in that vein is always exciting to find.
I don’t really feel like harping on mid-major talent pool conversations for anyone since it’s becoming a pretty moot point to nitpick these days; for the sake of bringing up the argument, I’m sure some people will question the level of talent Mitchell has been cooking against but we’ve had plenty of evidence against that. However, I do have some concerns on both his lack of strong burst and athleticism, and he’s also not a very good defender. Talent will rule supreme and push past the worries just as it did for Podz and Brunson and plenty of other guards over the years, and I hope this will be the case for a team looking for some firepower in a backup guard.
Miami Heat: G Zeke Mayo, South Dakota State
Player Comparison(s): Coby White, Cole Anthony
Back-to-back mid majors! If you follow my Twitter at all, I’ve tried to make it abundantly clear that I’m a massive Zeke Mayo guy and I am BEGGING more analysts to put him on their boards. In a year with a lot of uncertainty, it’s time to start giving the mid-majors more attention. There’s a lot of pros here, folks!
For my money, Zeke Mayo is among the best handful of mid-major prospects in the entire country and his stats will tell you he’s been among the best players in the Summit League for two years now. He’s posting some really excellent stats as a lead scorer for the Jackrabbits in these last two seasons, and he’s become a steady multi-level scorer that can wreak havoc from 3 and inside the arc. I like seeing his athletic ability of getting to the rim and drawing fouls effectively and it’s clearly worked so far, with him already reaching a career-high in free throw attempts (3.9 FTM/4.7 FTA). Mayo can also rebound at a strong rate for a 6’4” guard (5.9 TRB), something I love in guard prospects, and he can pass the rock pretty effectively. He gives me some Cole Anthony vibes with his rebounds and scoring ability.
If there’s any knocks to his profile that I’ve seen, it will mainly come down to trying to limit turnovers, continuing to improve as a team defender and improving shot selection, all of which I have to think can be tweaked for someone that won’t be tasked with being Thee Guy or a heavy on-ball player as he’s been for these last two seasons (27.3% usage). Ultimately, I’m very in on Mayo’s overall talent and being a very good player at the NBA level. Guys with the natural ability to go get a bucket and then some don’t grow on trees, and I hope teams are seeing it and buying into it. He very much feels like a Heat type of guard they can iron out and develop into an effective piece.
Orlando Magic: G/F Payton Sandfort, Iowa
Player Comparison: Joe Harris
Sandfort has been having an excellent season, and his recent triple double marking the first in Iowa’s entire history is going to get him a lot of extra looks.
As a big-time shooter, he’s currently averaging 7 attempts and connecting 36.5% of them, and his free throw percentage at 91.3% and 89.8% for his 3-year career all implies that the shooting is very sustainable and he should be ready for a specialist role at minimum out the gate. Still, he’s got a lot to his game to like with good size at 6’7”, he rebounds really well, he has some passing touch and I really like the way he plays off the ball that can make him a valuable movement shooter in the NBA. On tape, I think it’s clear that his defense isn’t great, but I don’t think it’s bad at all and feels relatively coachable to improve in the right environment. I’m very eager to see Sandfort in NBA action this fall and I think a team needing shooting like the Magic do would really like him being ready to roll early.
Washington Wizards (via Phoenix Suns): G Carlton “Bub” Carrington, Pitt
Player Comparison(s): Collin Sexton with PG skills, D’Angelo Russell-lite
For a while, I was starting to push Bub Carrington off of my board for my feeling he might be better off staying for another season during his struggles. I still think he might benefit from staying behind, but with his recent improvements, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team with a lot of time to invest in him like Washington giving him his guarantee to develop.
Carrington has started to tick back up after some disastrous meltdown performances in January. Even in spite of some occasionally bad shooting nights, Carrington has started to turn corners in making a stronger impact in his poor shooting games as a creator and rebounder who seems to play more comfortably in a playmaking role. From the jump, he’s been an electric shotmaker and athlete who just knows how to score off the dribble, score from a variety of places and has a really nice feel for the game as an on-ball player. He showed out really well in front of 18 (!) NBA scouts for a career-high 27 points in a win against Boston College this past week and he clearly has a lot of suitors buying into him. I do have my share of concerns about his very, very streaky shooting that’s started to improve recently, his questionable shot selection and not being great at the rim still (52.1% true shooting) and needing to build defensive consistency. Still, the talent is very much there and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him going significantly higher in the coming months.
Sacramento Kings: F Coleman Hawkins, Illinois
Player Comparison(s): Jaylin Williams (the OKC PF/C)
Hawkins has been around for a hot minute now, and after testing the waters in 2023, he returns to Illinois for his senior season and his best season to date. He’s got a lot going for him as a giant 6’10” forward/stretch big with legit shooting, passing and dribbling moves and solid athleticism and I could easily see him going much higher than this.
He’s continued to get better and prove himself as a winning two-way player with great connective qualities, and despite him being 22 come draft time and my concerns about his defensive ability at the next level, it’s easy to see Hawkins being able to push for a rotation role early on and finding success as a connector and floor stretcher. He’s coming off a big-time 30-pointer win over Iowa and gearing up for March, so expect to see more of him in the coming months.
Philadelphia 76ers: FORFEITED
Indiana Pacers (via New Orleans Pelicans): F/C Trevon Brazile, Arkansas
Player Comparison(s): John Collins-lite, Mo Wagner, Thomas Bryant
The run on big men in this draft continues with Brazile, an Arkansas returnee over a year removed from his previous ACL injury. He’s had a positive season for Arkansas and continued to make an impact in the wake of losing a few NBA rookie teammates (Anthony Black, Jordan Walsh, Ricky Council IV) despite some lingering injury concerns.
There’s a lot to like about Brazile at the NBA level. He’s got a real jumper and is a plus defender with his versatility and instincts as a 6’10” forward-big. He’s smart, hard-nosed and plays really well at the rim both ways, with plenty above-the-rim pop. The way he spaces the floor will be one of his biggest assets at the NBA level, and considering the shot is really good and should translate fine, teams will be very happy with that. The issue is, Brazile may be solely limited to that of a floor spacer, as he’s really shown to be a negative when having the ball in his hands. He can’t really create for himself and I don’t buy that it will ever come. There’s also some reason to be concerned about his durability and injury history coming off his ACL tear, and the consistency hasn’t been all there a lot because of it. Still, his ability to play a good spacing role as a real shooting threat with switchability and ease at attacking on closeouts and on the glass will be key. His archetype is always worth giving a go in the modern NBA even if he can’t play with the ball in his hands, and I don’t have any trouble buying his floor being something decent early on.
Detroit Pistons (via New York Knicks): G/F Kobe Johnson, USC
Player Comparison: Josh Hart-lite, Josh Green
It’s hard to go too wrong here if we’re looking to shore up the fringes of a solid up and coming team or contender alike, but I think Kobe Johnson makes a lot of sense for almost any team in the 2nd round.
While not a very high-upside type of player, Johnson has plenty of skills to be a key bench piece and spot starter when called upon with pro-style intangibles, being one of the best defenders in the PAC-12, super high-BBIQ, creation and passing abilities, lacks selfishness, effective complimentary scoring, nice NBA wing frame. He’s shown a handful of issues throughout this brutal USC season that have hurt his idealized type of player a bit, particularly on the offensive end as a ball handler and as a consistent shooter and scorer, but on a team that needs help around their starters like the Pistons do, Johnson can be a good Swiss Army knife type of guy for a team that needs talent around the margins. The best version of him is one that can mix it up defensively as a high energy floor raiser and hit some shots when called upon, and it’s easy to see him making a lot of sense on a roster built like the Pistons’.
Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland Cavaliers): G/F Jalen Bridges, Baylor
Player Comparison(s): Pat Connaughton
Bridges has been on the fringes of the draft pool for a good while for me. He was one of my higher ranked undrafted guys last season before returning to Baylor, and I think he’s likely done enough this season to land himself a nice little job on the back end of the 2nd round. I see small bits of a rotation-caliber 3&D wing who can be a master of none glue guy, and that’s always a fine player to give a shot and see what sticks. He’s finally starting to connect his shot more, with 39.4% from 3 this season (1.9 makes on 4.9 attempts) and a rock-solid 87.5% from the charity stripe.
He’s also a solid defender who’s been proven to defend guards and wings pretty well, and while he’s not a very explosive athlete by any means, he’s very technically sound and knows how to contribute right away without many mistakes.
Indiana Pacers (via Milwaukee Bucks): F/C Grant Nelson, Alabama
Player Comparison(s): Beefier Dario Saric, Poor Man’s Keith Van Horn
Nelson has dipped a bit in recent times after he became a hot Draft Twitter favorite from his time at NDSU last season. I was also a big fan last season! He’s had some highs and lows in Nate Oats’ offense at Alabama, but I’ve still liked everything enough to warrant a spot here and I’m hopeful an NBA team sees something real in his unique abilities for his position.
Nelson has understandably taken a slight step back in the counting stats in a better conference and less usage in his role, and it’s led to a handful of inconsistent games throughout the season. He’s also suffered from foul trouble in a handful of those and will need to be worked on at the next level. However, the talent couldn’t be clearer: he’s a tough 6’10-6’11” forward/big with legitimate guard skills and bits of passing to his game. He’s playing best when he’s driving to the basket, and he’s adding some more flash to his scoring bag with fadeaways and trying to connect on more 3s. I’ve been wanting to see more outside shooting as the major swing skill of his, and while we’re seeing similar career numbers at Alabama with 0.9 makes on 3.3 attempts that give me pause, I just want to keep seeing more makes. I think the talent is real enough to warrant a selection and I’m really hoping to see someone take the time to try unlocking Nelson’s potential.
Los Angeles Lakers (via Los Angeles Clippers): G Kylan Boswell, Arizona
Player Comparison(s): Kyle Lowry-lite, Craig Porter Jr.
Boswell saw a drop in his draft stock in the past few weeks. He’s had some really excellent games all season for a top-seeded Arizona, but he’s taken a major dip in these last few weeks and leaves a lot of questions about whether he should stay or go onto the NBA or even transfer next season.
Even still, Boswell had a good start to his season where he started to flash some nice potential and he’s starting to dig himself out of the hole this week. He’s somehow still 18 as a sophomore right now, and despite being a little bit undersized at 6’2”, Boswell’s shown some good shooting and playmaking abilities. At 200 pounds, he’s also built like a truck for a guard and plays well through contact that he can hopefully keep building on. Even for his rough play recently, I’m still in on him being a potential NBA player worth taking a shot on at the end of the 2nd round.
Phoenix Suns: FORFEITED
Denver Nuggets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): F Harrison Ingram, UNC
Player Comparison(s): Nassir Little
There’s not much that the Denver Nuggets will need to directly address after securing a backup big in DaRon Holmes, but when you’re a big-time contender, defense and finding pieces who can come in and play supporting roles (or at least be ready to) is always a must, and Ingram is most certainly that.
Ingram has been a mainstay at UNC these past few years and displayed a nice variety of skills as a big forward who can defend, play a point-forward role where he can make good plays, has a strong feel for the game, can shoot a little bit and plays with a high motor. He’s started to take a nice jump in 3s with a career-high 4.4 attempts this season and connecting on 39.5% of them. He can be a solid two-way piece that, despite a lack of explosiveness and needing more offensive consistency, can contribute enough to find some opportunity with his floor as a defender. I think someone will find a good rotation piece with Ingram.
Memphis Grizzlies (via Oklahoma City Thunder): G/F Teafale Lenard Jr., Texas Legends
Player Comparison(s): Josh Minott, Matisse Thybulle
I haven’t had too many off-the-wall picks in this one, so I’ll throw out an interesting flier on a hometown guy that the Grizzlies could find something in. Lenard’s career has taken a bit of an unorthodox turn after transferring to Memphis from Middle Tennessee State, only to de-commit and join the Texas Legends, where he was selected 2nd overall in the 2023-2024 G League Draft. Still, don’t let the current surface-level stats or him not playing as many minutes for the Legends this season (18.2 MPG, 12 GP) push him under the radar.
Many have forgotten already, but Lenard was one of the best and most underrated defenders in college basketball last season at Middle Tennessee. He posted some eye-popping numbers last season with 1.6 steals and 1.8 blocks per game as a 6’7” wing and he’s continued to display how much of a stalwart he is with the Legends (1 steal and 1 block per game in 2023-2024). One of the bigger knocks on him was his lack of high-level scoring and a 3-point shot, but his recent strides has gone pretty under the radar in Texas, where he’s begun to really turn a corner on that end (18.2 MPG, 6.8 PPG, 1 3PTM on 2.6 3PTA) and post steady and efficient splits. Moreover, he recently posted his career high in points with 24 on February 14, shooting 8-14 from the field and 4-8 from 3.
Make no mistake: this is a very late 2nd round pick and we’re not seeing crazy minutes or scoring from Lenard on a per-game basis this season. He hasn’t gotten big attention as a top guy and understandably so. However, it’s odd we’re seeing a fantastic defender who isn’t terribly far off from a Ryan Dunn-esque level as a wing that’s making positive strides as a scorer just hiding in plain sight. At cost, I think this is a fantastic value flier to take and I hope teams are paying extra close attention to him.
Dallas Mavericks (via Boston Celtics): G Juan Nunez, Ratiopharm Ulm
Player Comparison(s): Facundo Campazzo+, Jaden Springer
We’ll round off the list with Juan Nunez, one of the hottest international players in the mainstream circuit right now. Despite the draft hype, it’s entirely possible we might see Nunez stay overseas as a draft-and-stash target with rumored interest from other international programs, like Real Madrid and Valencia Basket. Even still, I think Nunez is well worth the long-term investment, especially from a team like the Dallas Mavericks who could really benefit from a guard with international pace, know-how and high-level passing off the bench.
Nunez has looked pretty strong often this season as one of the steady international names from the start to the end of 2023 and beyond. He’s a great passer and built in the same mold as other great EuroLeague guards that don’t need to rely on high-level athleticism to thrive. He’s got great vision, passing touch, strong scoring inside the arc and plays good defense, and him doing what he is at age 19 is pretty darn impressive and suggestive that there might be some really good upside to be unlocked. He’s taken more 3s over time and I’m curious how much better he can get in the next few years if he stays overseas. I think he projects best as a backup floor general type of player, but hey, this is the makings of a decent one to me.
Top UDFAs Left
(Note: this list will highlight some of the best players still on the board that I see as priority undrafted free agents based off my list. These are all guys who could be very draft-worthy and could be in the coming months.)
F Collin Murray-Boyle, South Carolina
G Pelle Larsson, Arizona
G Reece Beekman, Virginia
F JoJo Tugler, Houston
G/F Alex Toohey, NBL
G/F Nique Clifford, Colorado State
G/F Otega Oweh, Oklahoma
G/F Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
G Antonio Reeves, Kentucky
G/F Matthew Cleveland, Miami
C Hunter Dickinson, Kansas
G Tristen Newton, UConn
G Kam Jones, Marquette
G Jamal Shead, Houston
C Oumar Ballo, Arizona
Off the Board
(Note: this list is to highlight players worth a mention that I don’t foresee being drafted and/or currently endorse entering into the 2024 NBA Draft. This is for a variety of reasons, including underwhelming play, the need for more time or development, a weaker role this season that should improve next season, success in the transfer portal, decline in stock, or some other similar reason. Consider this almost an “Honorable Mentions” list of guys who have the potential to be drafted that I don’t believe will/should enter. For this exercise, I will also list a range I think they could end up if they were to enter into the draft and got some interest.)
G/F Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois
Potential Range: Very late 1st to early-mid 2nd round (TBD due to legal issues)
G/F Justin Edwards, Kentucky
Potential Range: Very late 1st to early-mid 2nd round
G DJ Wagner, Kentucky
Potential Range: Very late 1st to early-mid 2nd round
F/C Ulrich Chomche, NBA Academy Africa (Dec. 2005)
Potential Range: Very late 1st to early-mid 2nd round
G Tyrese Proctor, Duke
Potential Range: Early to mid-late 2nd round
G/F Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana
Potential Range: Early to mid-late 2nd round
G/F Bronny James, USC
Potential Range: Early to mid-late 2nd round
G Judah Mintz, Syracuse
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
G Xavien Lee, Princeton
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
F/C Mark Mitchell, Duke
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
G Elmarko Jackson, Kansas
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
F/C Aaron Bradshaw, Kentucky
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
C Aday Mara, UCLA
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
F Omaha Billew, Iowa State
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
G/F Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State
Potential Range: Mid to late 2nd round
F Baba Miller, FSU
Potential Range: Mid-late 2nd round to undrafted
G, G/F Garwey Dual, Providence
Potential Range: Mid-late 2nd round to undrafted
F Dillon Mitchell, Texas
Potential Range: Mid-late 2nd round to undrafted
G/F Scotty Middleton, Ohio State
Potential Range: Late 2nd round to undrafted
G Thierry Darlan, G League Ignite
Potential Range: Late 2nd round to undrafted
G Riley Kugel, Florida
Potential Range: Late 2nd round to undrafted
G/F Tucker DeVries, Drake
Potential Range: Late 2nd round to undrafted
G/F Andrei Stojakovic, Stanford
Potential Range: Late 2nd round to undrafted
Final Thoughts
That about does it for my first official 2024 mock draft. I’ll have another coming out pretty soon, so if there’s anyone I missed or that I’m horribly wrong about, sound off in the comments or let me know about it! I’m always growing and happy to get as much feedback as possible. Thanks for reading!