2024 Dynasty Rookie ADP Breakdown

Brian breaks down some Dynasty Rookie Draft Results and gives his analysis on some names that stand out.

Dynasty Rookie Draft season is here. For those who don’t know, I help run a series of leagues, and I have collected their draft results and made some Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP. 14 drafts were conducted, so we have a good sample size. These draft results were also sent to Matt Lawson so they are included in his ADP. These leagues tend to be more competitive and aren’t as casual as most leagues are. Granted, it does vary from league to league a bit but in general, we have quite a lot of fantasy and basketball nerds in these leagues. These leagues have 24 teams and are free, so 48 picks in general.

I will not be breaking down every single player and their ADP, as that would take a long time, but I will be ranking the polarizing prospects and why they were polarizing, some of my favorite values in the first and second rounds and many other categories. So let's Dive in!

Here’s the link if you want to see these specific rankings for yourself.

Most Polarizing Prospects

This is relative to draft position, so a top prospect with a bigger standard deviation and variance relative to other players in the same tier will stand out.

1. Zaccharie Risacher/Atlanta Hawks

This might be one of the biggest surprises of the bunch. The #1 overall pick! How? Well there’s a few reasons why. First off, Risacher isn’t the greatest fantasy player. He doesn’t really have any on-the- ball abilities. However, the fact he is the #1 pick holds a lot of his value. There were drafts where he went pretty high and in the top 5. Then there were drafts where he fell to 14. To some, that might seem crazy but it actually happened more than once.

I do think it's a little crazy he fell that far. I think his ADP is about where it should be, maybe on the lower end, but he’s not being seen as someone with a lot of upside. He’ll have some value by some people just because he was the #1 pick. If he has a good year, the excitement could rise because of the fact he is the #1 pick, and then you could have a sell high situation. However, it’s not even a sure thing that he starts. The Hawks still have Jalen Johnson and DeAndre Hunter. Hunter isn’t the future at this point, but he’s got a big contract and he’s better than Risacher at this point. The Hawks haven’t signaled a rebuild, so Risacher might end up coming off the bench initially.

2. Tidjane Salaun/Charlotte Hornets

This one isn’t completely unexpected considering Salaun’s late rise on mock drafts. It wasn’t a complete shock to me because it did seem like teams were a lot higher on him than consensus and then consensus just caught up. I wouldn’t have imagined him going 6th in any imagination until draft night when Krysten Peek sent out a report that the Hornets were interested in Salaun. The fact he was the 6th pick, has value. His fantasy translations aren’t great and summer league showed us nothing to indicate that he’s ready now.

However, if there’s two things we heard about Salaun the entire time, it’s how hard of a worker he is, and how high his motor runs. That matters when you have Salaun’s physical traits. This could work, but Salaun could still be a few years away. In some dynasty leagues, he might be easier to acquire after a year or two in some cases. However, the fact he’s a top pick means that his value won’t drop too far unless he’s flat-out terrible. He went as high as 5 in the samples we collected and as low as 22. Both of them are extreme examples clearly and I wouldn’t be expecting that, but he is pretty polarizing, to say the least.

3. Cody Williams/Utah Jazz

Cody Williams had an up and down season at Colorado and the Jazz decided to take him at 10. He didn’t have great fantasy translations. There have also been some vocal fantasy people in the community that haven’t been as high on Cody Williams. Now, it was never the stats that made people excited about Cody. It was the flashes in transition, the physical traits, first step, ability to get to the rim and the fact he is the brother of Jalen Williams. All of this combined makes Cody Williams kind of polarizing.

What is worth noting about the data is that the leagues that started up a little bit later into July, Cody started going higher when he started to show out in Vegas. Granted it's also important to remember that he just blended in at the Salt Lake Summer League and at Colorado at times. The mentality and the strength are the two biggest things that need to change. If they do, then Cody Williams is going to be a very very valuable dynasty asset. He went as high as 9 in one league and as low as 25 in another, which, don’t ask me how.

I also could have gone further down and talked about Bronny if I wanted to, but it's just a weird situation that I don’t really need to go over. Some other players that had a pretty high standard deviation with relation to their talent tiers were TJ Shannon, Ja’Kobe Walter, Ryan Dunn, and Tyler Smith.

My Biggest Values of the First Round Picks

This is purely in my opinion and you have a right to disagree with these.

1. Reed Sheppard/Houston Rockets/ADP: 2.6

I’ll admit it's a bit biased because I ended up with Reed Sheppard at 1 on my big board. That being said, I also acknowledge that I was in the minority there. Now, I don’t know if that has changed but that’s not the point. From what I see, 2.6 is too low. It’s not a crazy amount, but his fantasy upside doesn’t warrant a 2.6 rating. This still is a smaller sample size, but the reward, at this point, way outweighs the risk.

2. Kel’el Ware/Miami Heat/ADP: 12.1

I’m saying this as someone who was a lot lower on Kel’el for basically the entire cycle, an ADP of 12.1 is too low. If he hits, he’s going to be a massive asset. I never doubted the talent, more the motor. However, if Miami is the team that is taking that bet on him, I don’t worry about the motor as much. He could be a player that will be pretty difficult to acquire in a dynasty league very quickly.

3. Jaylon Tyson/Cleveland Cavaliers/ADP: 24.9

Jaylon Tyson has a better fantasy skill set than what consensus would say right now. He’s not exactly young which bumps him down, but he’s still really talented. I actually like the fit in Cleveland and I don’t think it's crazy that he gets minutes pretty early on in his career. At 24.9, he could be a very good player at that price. In most leagues, this is a team that is a playoff team. Really underrated bet at that ADP for a contender.

My Biggest Draft Busts of the First Round Picks

Again, feel free to disagree if you want.

1. Devin Carter/Sacramento Kings/ADP: 13.9

I have a few reasons for this. It’s not that I don’t like Devin Carter, because I do. I actually don’t love the situation in Sacramento. He’s already coming in with a setback with the injury, he doesn’t have great positional size, and this team has 4 players who are better than him right now. Fox, Ellis, Monk, Huerter. Some can move down and Carter might be in the rotation. A worry with Carter is the shot. If he doesn’t shoot it well, he won’t play. We saw that with Davion Mitchell already. Carter is bigger than Davion, but not by much. I think Devin might be a better shooter, but that’s not saying much.

2. Dalton Knecht/LA Lakers/ADP: 14.9

Why? I never had him as a top 10 pick for one. I think he went right where he should have gone at around 17. The fit with the Lakers is good but there’s one very important element to remember: he doesn’t project as a great fantasy player. He’s a scorer with not much else. On top of that, he’s 23 and had one outlier season at Tennessee compared to the rest. He undoubtedly improved, but how much? His summer league was hit or miss. I think there are outcomes where he looks like a bigger Malik Beasley. Now, that’s not a bad player, but at that ADP, would I rather swing on players with more fantasy upside? Like Salaun at 15.1? McCain at 16.5? Missi at 17.1? Then if someone higher ranked than him falls like Bub at 11.5? Ware at 12.1? Williams at 14.2? I’d actually be more inclined to bet on Carter in some circumstances because the fantasy skillset is there.

These were the only two that stood out to me as real busts at their ADP.

Top 3 Highest ADP for Second Rounders

1. Kyle Filipowski/Utah Jazz/ADP: 21.8

This one isn’t super surprising. Filipowski was seen by some as a very good get as early as the mid-first round pre-draft. He’s being taken around that spot in some areas and the rewards for that could be great. With a Kelly Olynyk-like fantasy skillset, Filipowski could have a run of 6 weeks and have top 100 value, and be a difference maker in fantasy playoffs. The Jazz center situation isn’t exactly set in stone. It is worth noting that Filipowski hasn’t signed his rookie deal as of when I’m writing this, but it is coming.

2. Tyler Smith/Milwaukee Bucks/ADP: 25.9

This one is a bet for sure. Tyler Smith will not provide immediate value to the Bucks. There’s a real chance that if you wanted to acquire Tyler Smith, you could get him cheaper in the off-season in most cases. If you drafted him at this spot, you have to have the understanding that this is going to take a while. He’s young, has elite skills, and has fans in the fantasy community. I had Smith higher than consensus as well, but it was a bet. If he plays well in the G League this season, he could maintain his value, but there’s more ways his value could go down than go up this season.

3. Johnny Furphy/Indiana Pacers/ADP: 27.4

Johnny Furphy is young, can shoot, and doesn’t have a bad fantasy game. He likely won’t ever be a fantasy stud, but as a role player, maybe even top 100, there’s value. Rick Carlisle isn’t afraid to play rookies if they’re good. I think Furphy is good and he went too low in the draft. The Indiana Pacers had a lottery grade on him. The Pacers could make more moves, there’s a real chance Furphy could return value early on, but time will tell.

I hope you all enjoyed this piece and any feedback in the comments below is appreciated!