2024 NBA Draft Lottery: Winners, Losers and Burning Questions

Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Lottery, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs get richer, and plenty of craziness persists. Let's recap the lottery!

I guess we all should’ve seen one of the more insane 1.01 winners in this century happening in the most insane NBA Draft we’ve seen in over a decade, huh?

Crazy stuff.

The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery order is now set and ready to give us much, much more to think about. As if you weren’t already overthinking it, get ready for another 6 weeks of it until Draft Day on June 26.

With that being said, let’s break down the full order and discuss some of the winners, losers and some of the questions I’m going to be considering in these next couple weeks.

FULL LOTTERY ORDER

1. Atlanta Hawks

2. Washington Wizards

3. Houston Rockets

4. San Antonio Spurs

5. Detroit Pistons

6. Charlotte Hornets

7. Portland Trail Blazers

8. San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto Raptors)

9. Memphis Grizzlies

10. Utah Jazz

11. Chicago Bulls

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston Rockets)

13. Sacramento Kings

14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Golden State Warriors)

Winners

Atlanta Hawks

I mean, duh! Well before their play-in exit, the Atlanta Hawks were already wading deep into rumors, from Trae Young being traded and linking up with Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio, to breakout candidate Jalen Johnson looking like the only guaranteed untouchable player this summer. Regardless of what the plan will be, anyone who lands the first overall pick is always a winner, and even more so if you literally had 3% odds to land it.

As it stands right now, Trae Young is feeling increasingly likely to stay put with Jalen Johnson, and there’s already some serious traction on Perth Wildcats big Alex Sarr being the closest thing to a first overall consensus player.

This will be the Hawks’ first time ever picking first overall since the 1976 NB/ABA Merger (technically their third time and first since 1955, if you want to count the pre-merger eras). This will also be their first time picking in the top 4 since 2018 when they selected and traded Luka Doncic with the 3rd overall pick for Trae Young, taken at 5th overall, as well as their fifth top 4 pick since 2000.

Houston Rockets

Huge credit to GM Rafael Stone and his sheer luck in landing the 3rd overall pick. Things are looking up in Houston after a relatively successful season where they sped up the rebuilding process with the signings of Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks, added Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, and saw some good progress from Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. Now, they get to add a top 3 player to continue sharpening their franchise and getting ready to win.

San Antonio Spurs

What’s better than one lottery pick? Two!

Some last ditch efforts by the Toronto Raptors made it appear that they might have a strong shot at getting their pick back for a top prospect, but in the end, the pick landed at 8th overall and will be handed back to the Spurs, giving them the 4th and 8th picks. This is going to be great news for their hopes in building a stronger supporting cast around Rookie of the Year and superstar Victor Wembanyama. It’s likely a bit disappointing that their pick stuck at 4th, but hey, there are far worse predictaments to be in during your rebuild.

Alex Sarr

Things are going to be looking up for Alex Sarr if he is indeed the first overall pick. Not only is he shaping up to be the closest thing to a consensus on the first overall pick, but if much of their core around Trae Young and Jalen Johnson remains, Sarr will come into a good situation where he’s not going to be tasked with a ton of responsibility out the gate. On paper, this is one of the better situations a first overall pick has come into in the last few years. This is also great for his still-developing offensive game that will need some time and experience to grow, where he won’t be expected to be a world beater out the gate.

Losers

Detroit Pistons

I’m sorry, Detroit fans. Once again, the Pistons end up with the 5th overall pick for the third year in a row after posting one of the worst seasons we’ve seen in quite a while. In some ways, I don’t think it’s all bad for the Pistons, who will get the chance to do their due diligence on finding the strongest fit as a shooter that they desperately need rather than being more inclined to draft the best player available. I’ve mocked Zaccharie Risacher to Detroit pretty often as one of the top 10 players in this draft and a good shooter with solid upside, and I think he’s going to remain in play here. Still, the fifth sub-25 win season in a row only yielding a single top 4 pick hurts.

Brooklyn Nets

Not to pile onto Brooklyn too much, but man, if that deal to get their picks back and Jalen Green for Mikal Bridges was legitimately on the table, Sean Marks should be out of there yesterday. What a brutal blow for their pick to land 3rd overall to the Houston Rockets as the team may potentially continue to regress without any new picks coming in. At least they have some of the Phoenix Suns’ upcoming draft picks.

Toronto Raptors

This one really hurts for Toronto fans. On the bright side, it will mean that this pick is now off their backs with full focus on getting a strong pick in the much, much improved 2025 draft. However, it coming at the expense of landing Jakob Poeltl at the time until now as they start launching into a rebuild really stinks to see. This will mean that the Raptors will only have the 19th overall pick (via the Indiana Pacers) and the 31st overall pick. Not all is lost, but still.

Utah Jazz

For what it’s worth, the Utah Jazz already didn’t have a great shot at landing a top 4 pick, but being just a spot short of shooting up into the top 4 from 9th overall is surely disappointing. It’s going to be interesting to see how Danny Ainge intends to use his 9th, 29th and 32nd draft picks this season as they look ahead to the next year of the rebuild.

Spectulations

What the heck is Atlanta going to do?

Let’s go into this assuming that Alex Sarr is going to be the pick. If so, I suppose the better question is, will much they really need to do after securing Sarr? My guess is likely not a lot, especially if the addition of this pick means that Trae Young’s future is more secure going forward.

My initial gut feeling is, regardless of whether Young may be legitimately available or not, Young’s trade price has absolutely gone up in value in the last 24 hours. There’s likely a lot less pressure on the Hawks to tear things down, considering how strongly the combination of Young and Sarr can be when Sarr continues to evolve offensively. I’m sure there’s still going to be some conversations surrounding it, but I think from my general standpoint, the chances of Trae Young being on the move are still existent but not likely.

In that regard, this means that the Dejounte Murray market is going to heat right back up. Like Young, I do think this drives the price up slightly on Murray, especially once free agency starts up. There’s going to be plenty of rumors of different players on the move and someone’s inevitably going to be looking for a guard like Murray to add in. If the Hawks do envision building around Young, Johnson and Sarr, they should definitely keep Murray available to see what they can get as far as picks and players that work in their favor.

Finally, and probably most obvious, I think we can lock in Clint Capela as the biggest name on the chopping block Alex Sarr is indeed the pick. With a likely starting unit built around Young, Johnson, Sarr and Okongwu, there’s plenty of spaces in between to fill out. Capela has been the trending odd man out for a bit and this should lock things in on that. A few other players I’d expect to see on the move would be a potential sell-high on Bogdan Bogdanovic, DeAndre Hunter, and possibly AJ Griffin. Griffin in particular will be an interesting piece in the mix, considering his strong scoring as a rookie to a dramatic cut to his minutes and appearances last season.

If the Hawks take Alex Sarr, what will the Washington Wizards plan to do?

There’s a lot of different schools of thought on what the Wizards can do next. It’s all going to depend on their perception of the next highest upside and who gives them the best crack at a superstar. Fit hardly matters here, as the only guaranteed long-term building blocks are 2023 pick Bilal Coulibaly and Deni Avdija, but all signs are going to point to grabbing either a guard or a big.

Personally, my pick would be UConn’s Stephon Castle, followed by Nikola Topic and Donovan Clingan as my ideal top 3 choices. I think there’s some possible weight to Rob Dillingham, but I don’t love him and Jordan Poole meshing together at his size and their defensive fit. Really, I think most other fits besides those 3 get into some problem areas that don’t have the level of fit, feel and ultimate upside that my top choices would have. Castle in particular feels like both a strong fit next to Jordan Poole, a potential mark of philosophy by Winger and Dawkins and the type of player they like for this team, and a slight antithesis to Tyus Jones and his lousy fit with Poole. He’s going to be my top choice, so expect to see them linked a lot over the next month plus.

One other thing to note: I obviously have no clue what Washington will be thinking with their 2nd, 26th and 51st picks, but it would not surprise me one bit if there was serious interest in trading up from 26 in order to seek out a center if they do take a guard at 2nd. The true 5 position drops off considerably in my hypothetical 3.0 mock draft, where Yves Missi goes 19th overall to the Raptors, to Zach Edey at 25th, to the very raw NBA Academy Africa big Ulrich Chomche at 39th. Could Chomche be in play at 26? I suppose so, and that’s probably my best guess barring trades that I’ll note in my next mock, but I do consider it a slight reach. I might look out for any potential Washington has to move into the post-lottery range to find themselves a big. Of course, let’s not forget that the Wizards also have a few big man options to work around if things don’t go that way, including 2023 pick Tristan Vukcevic who really shined in the end of the season, Marvin Bagley III and Richaun Holmes. I don’t know if anyone but the former is going to be a long-term piece of the puzzle, but there are certainly options to consider in any case.

Rockets gets richer; do they take or trade the pick?

This is perhaps the most interesting takeaway I have of the entire lottery. Despite Houston missing the playoffs, there’s been loads of positive growth out of them as they’ve sped up the rebuild, both in part to new faces and new things we’ve yet to see out of their budding young pieces.

Rafael Stone has shown that he’s willing to hedge his bets on picks and free agency signees to get what he believes works for this team. There’s going to be a lot of changes coming in the offseason with a handful of teams. Is there a potential route to the Rockets landing a strong veteran option with the 3rd overall pick and more pieces? I think it’s possible.

Right now, my pick for the Houston Rockets taking the 3rd overall pick is Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard to add a strong guard with great shooting and defensive play at his size. Both of which are exactly what they need on paper. UConn big Donovan Clingan will also be in play as a big option. In either case, I wouldn’t be surprised if a legitimate shot at grabbing a star or fringe star with the pick and stuff becomes real. I would wonder if someone like Brandon Ingram could be in play. In that same Pelicans pipeline, how about Trey Murphy III, depending on how he’s valued and what the Rockets would get/give for him? Shooting is a definite need. Mikal Bridges has been an alleged target, especially at the trade deadline. Either way, it’s going to be fascinating to see what the Rockets intend to do.

Will Rob Dillingham be a Spur? Would him and Nikola Topic playing together work?

It certainly feels like the former’s answer will be a yes based on what the rumor mills are churning out. There’s been some recent rumors that both Dillingham and San Antonio have a mutual interest in teaming up. That fit really checks out and sounds pretty fun as well.

However, the Spurs are going to have some of their work cut out for them. Adding more strong guards will be a need, but they could also really benefit from the addition of a forward depending on how they intend to continue using Devin Vassell as their main wing and 2nd option to Wembanyama. If they opted to take Rob Dillingham and Nikola Topic, could both hold up defensively and based on their skillsets? I think it certainly could work, and I think the strength of Wemby and co. as a defender can help cover up for what Dillingham especially may offer as a below-average defender.

What will the Thunder do with yet another pick in their massive arsenal?

Short answer: who knows. No matter how we look at their full body of work from the beginning of the rebuild to their playoff run right now, they’ve been way into the green for a while in terms of success from an asset, teambuilding and performance standpoint. Sam Presti has accumulated an endless crop of picks and a very deep roster that you could make an argument for basically any player that they believe has the highest upside. It’s really just about finding the right guy to lock in as they continue onto Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s prime.

My best guesses for the 12th overall pick are the following:

A) Take the best player available and don’t overthink it

B) Take Cody Williams, who has a similar style of play as many of OKC’s player and has been linked to OKC both by his brother, Jalen, and spending time around them

C) Take a big man that can add depth at the 4 and 5 and meshes with Chet Holmgren; options like Tyler Smith, Kyle Filipowski, Kel’El Ware or Yves Missi could be in play

Each option has some wires crossing with one another, but if we’re looking at pure fit, I like the idea of option C. In my most recent mock draft, I mocked the G League Ignite big Tyler Smith to the Thunder at 12th overall.

Way Early/Off The Dome Lottery Mock Prediction

1. ATL: Alex Sarr, F/C

2. WAS: Stephon Castle, G, G/F

3. HOU: Reed Sheppard, G

4. SAS: Rob Dillingham, G

5. DET: Zaccharie Risacher, G/F

6. CHA: Ron Holland, F

7. POR: Matas Buzelis, F, F/C

8. SAS: Nikola Topic, G

9. MEM: Donovan Clingan, C

10. UTA: Cody Williams, G/F

11. CHI: Dalton Knecht, G/F

12. OKC: Tyler Smith, F, F/C

13. SAC: Kel’El Ware, C

14. POR: Johnny Furphy, G/F