2024 NBA Mock Draft 1.0: The Early Tiers Edition (Top 100 Prospects)
With the 2023-2024 college basketball season underway, let's discuss this upcoming draft class, my current tiers and where I see the top collegiate and international prospects today.
The first week of the college basketball season is coming to a close, and we’re beginning to learn some new things about the prospective 2024 draft class. Although it’s becoming abundantly clear that this class will not be nearly as top-heavy as the legend of the 2022 and 2023 classes grow, there’s a lot to be excited about as teams begin scouring for new building blocks and pieces to keep them growing in one of the more bottom-heavy drafts in a long time.
For the time being, as things begin to change over the first month of the season, I want to put together my first preview to give a lengthy idea of how I’m seeing pieces fall into place. There’s a lot of late 2nd round shifts I see ebbing and flowing and surely many names rising and falling; to give you a clear illustration of that, I’ve put together a list of 100 prospects and where/what range I would put them in today.
This list will cover a full tier list with a loose numerical order and positional fit. Note that the current 1-100 numbers are arbitrary, but rough estimates per tiers to keep in mind. The tiers are what I consider to be the most important element in terms of their prospective range and value.
Also note that this piece will be a bit light on notes, with specific small tidbits per tier. Next month, I plan to release a 2.0 Mock with a top-60 list will include more detail tailored to each specific player and what I see about them, along with projected teams per spot.
Enjoy!
Tier 1: High Lottery/Top 5 Range
F Ron Holland, G League Ignite (2005)
C Alex Sarr, Perth (NBL, 2005)
F Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite (2004)
G/G/F Stephon Castle, UConn (FR)
G Isaiah Collier, USC (FR)
My upper half of the lottery feels pretty copacetic for the most part. The 1st overall pick feels pretty up for grabs and it’s hard to really identify a clear top dog, much less someone who can be a first option star, considering this bottom-heavy draft. Still, I’m giving the 1.01 to Holland for now, with Sarr not terribly far behind him in terms of potential and adjustment to higher levels, especially if he can address and quell some concerns of mine. Collier is a nice riser that could potentially surpass Stephon Castle through the CBB season, but (hot take) I’m a shameless Castle lover and think he has a legitimate shot at being a top pick akin to a Cade Cunningham type of player. He’s certainly not far off and I absolutely see some star-like skills in him.
Tier 2: High-Mid Lottery Range
G/F Justin Edwards, Kentucky (FR)
C Donovan Clingan, UConn (SO)
G/F Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor (FR)
G/F DJ Wagner, Kentucky (FR)
G Riley Kugel, Florida (SO)
C Aday Mara, UCLA (FR)
This might be where I start to stray from some consensus boards. Edwards, Clingan and Walter feel like safe upper lottery selections at the moment, and Walter is a hot name and a big time bucket as eyes shift to Baylor in the post-Keyonte George world. I’m a big Clingan guy and I could easily see him sneaking into the top tier considering this big class. However, the one player I want to really highlight at 10 is Kugel, who really shouldn’t be much of a surprise as a potential lottery pick if you’re seeing him now or his Jaden Ivey-esque glow-up in the end of his freshman season. He looks white-hot in his recent games as a lead 2 guard and Florida looks like a must-watch team as long as he’s holding it down. He’s a very gifted scorer but those steals too, man… I might be higher on him than most, but if he keeps up this current level, I don’t expect to see him falling out of the lottery come February.
Tier 3: Late Lottery/Mid-Late 1st
G Nikola Topic, Mega Bemax (Serbia, 2005)
G Tyrese Proctor, Duke (SO)
F/C Kyle Filipowski, Duke (SO)
F/C Izan Almansa, G League Ignite (2005)
F/C Kel’el Ware, Indiana (SO)
G/F Cody Williams, Colorado (FR)
G/G/F Garwey Dual, Providence (FR)
F/C Adem Bona, UCLA (SO)
G/F Zaccharie Risacher, ASVEL (2005)
G Trey Alexander, Creighton (JR)
F Mackenzie Mgbako, Indiana (FR)
The next tier is an interesting one full of big-time potential and risers that could easily push their way into lottery contention, most notably Providence’s Dual, who has shown some insane potential as a twitchy, high-energy guard/wing creator and ball handler with a 7-foot wingspan. Tools like his are so valuable in today’s NBA and are exactly what teams should be looking for that justify a reach or rise beyond this tier. This tier also has some other nice risers, including Topic, who’s terrorizing overseas teams with fiery scoring and ball handling, Bona, who’s absolutely dominating at UCLA in a major way, Cody Williams heading in the right direction at Colorado (but may stay another season), Kel’el Ware in a fiery breakout in his new home in Indiana and the quickly improving Risacher who’s impressed me more and more lately despite my initial concerns. Trey Alexander is also a sneaky post-lotto choice who should be picking up more steam for Creighton as a big-time bucket.
Tier 4: Late 1st-Early 2nd
F Baba Miller, FSU (SO)
G Rob Dillingham, Kentucky (FR)
G Jared McCain, Duke (FR)
F Melvin Ajinca, St. Quentin (France, 2004)
F/C Tidjane Salaun, Cholet (France, 2005)
G Elmarko Jackson, Kansas (FR)
C Aaron Bradshaw, Kentucky (FR)
F/C Trevon Brazile, Arkansas (JR)
F/C DaRon Holmes II, Dayton (JR)
G Judah Mintz, Syracuse (SO)
F Bobi Klintman, Cairns (NBL, 2004)
This next tier is where things start to muddle for me in terms of building a concrete rank. There’s plenty of players I could easily see rising or falling at any given time, with a few I’m very tempted to throw in the bottoms of the above tier like Baba Miller and Rob Dillingham (it could happen, depending on the Mgbako situation). The latter in particular is starting to look like a very special part of Kentucky’s 2023-2024 season, which is really saying something considering who else they netted. Miller should have a stronger season than his shortened freshman season and I’m eager to see Leonard Hamilton work his developmental magic. Besides that, there’s some other fun players looking to rise up, such as Ajinca, McCain and Klintman. Mintz in particular should be a big riser and potentially going even higher than this tier with his excellent play at Syracuse so far. There’s a few players with a good incentive working back from injury, especially Trevon Brazile and Aaron Bradshaw. Two I’m a bit worried about in this tier are Elmarko Jackson, who hasn’t impressed me a ton just yet despite some crafty passing into his first 2 outings, and DaRon Holmes, whose questionable decision to stay at Dayton might stunt his draft stock with uncertainty of how much higher he can go despite his skill.
Tier 5: Early-Mid 2nd (AKA the “My Guys” Tier)
G Elliot Cadeau, UNC (FR)
F/C Grant Nelson, Alabama (SR)
G Zeke Mayo, SDSU (JR)
G/F Scotty Middleton, Ohio State (FR)
F/C Mark Mitchell, Duke (FR)
F/C Tristan da Silva, Colorado (FR)
G AJ Johnson, Illawarra (NBL, 2005)
F/C Tyler Smith, G League Ignite (2005)
G/F Kwame Evans Jr., Oregon (FR)
G/F Kobe Johnson, USC (JR)
G/F Teafale Lenard Jr., N/A (JR) (Note: Lenard decommitted from Memphis, will spend the 2023-2024 season preparing for the NBA Draft)
F Omaha Billew, Iowa State (FR)
If you care enough about my growing “My Guys” list, this tier is FULL of them. You’ll probably know most of them (viral sensation Grant Nelson Kobe Johnson AKA Thee Swiss Army Knife, Elliot Cadeau, etc.) but who I think truly deserves your attention if you don’t know him yet is Zeke Mayo. I have a full draft write-up coming out on Mayo soon, but I’m going to give you the TL;DR now: Zeke Mayo is, for my money, among the absolute best mid-major prospects in the entire country, if not the outright best. If your board doesn't have him by January 2024, I don’t want it. This tier also has some great 2nd rounders I see sneaking up into the 1st round if things go right for them, including guys like Nelson, Middleton, De Silva, Evans and more. I’d also recommend keeping a close eye on Lenard now, as there’s a good shot some people might be starting to forget about one of the best defenders in CBB. More on them to come. Also, is this too low on Mark Mitchell? I’m thinking he might belong more in the next tier.
One small thing to note: I didn’t want to put a draft label on Bronny James in a time where he’s still recovering and we’ve yet to see him play. I believe he would be in this tier if he intends to go into the NBA this season based on what I’ve seen up until now. Nonetheless, I’m eager to see him pick things back up once he’s healthy, which seems to be the way he’s trending.
Tier 6: Mid 2nd to Late 2nd
G Thierry Darlan, G League Ignite (2004)
G/F Berke Buyuktencel, UCLA (FR)
G Reece Beekman, Virginia (SR)
G/F Terrance Archaneuax, Houston (SO)
F/C Dillon Mitchell, Texas (SO)
G/F Tucker DeVries, Drake (SO)
G/F Ryan Dunn, Virginia (SO)
G/F Alex Karaban, UConn (SO)
F/C Oso Ighodaro, Marquette (JR)
G/F Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State (FR)
G/F Trentyn Flowers, Adelaide (NBL, 2005)
G/F Cameron Hilbreth, Wake Forest (JR)
F/C PJ Hall, Clemson (SR)
G Eric Gaines, UAB (JR)
F Tyler Burton, Villanova (SR)
F/C Dillon Jones, Weber State (JR)
G/F Jalen Bridges, Baylor (SR)
G/G/F Johnny Furphy, Kansas (FR)
G/F Matthew Cleveland, Miami (JR)
F/C Micah Hanlogten, Florida (SO)
G Dalton Knecht, Tennessee (SR)
G Ajay Mitchell, UCSB (JR)
This is where the tiers and numbers start to blur and you can kind of pick and choose the way you view these guys. There’s a lot of shakers and movers that we’re going to see dip in and out of the last couple tiers here and probably a handful who both improve their stock and end up going undrafted. I bolded a few I think you should continue paying attention to. There’s some pretty solid shooters and NBA-ready contributors here, including DeVries (an absolute FLAMETHROWER so far), Karaban and Hildreth. Furphy is also making a pretty darn good case for being even higher than this and it won’t be particularly surprising to potentially jump up a tier next month. Eric Gaines is a really big one to watch for the sheer top 1% athleticism you just can’t see in many guards at any level of the sport. Handlogten has also looked like a seamless fit into Florida’s system and been absolutely dominant so far and I’m eager to see him keep it up.
Tier 7: Top UDFA
F Bryce Hopkins, Providence (JR)
G/F Roddy Gayle Jr., Ohio State (FR)
G JJ Starling, Syracuse (SO)
G/F DeShawn Harris-Smith, Maryland (FR)
C Zach Edey, Purdue (SR)
G Jan Vide, UCLA (FR)
G Tyler Kolek, Marquette (SR)
G/F Andrej Stojakovic, Stanford (FR)
F/C Coen Carr, Michigan State (FR)
F/C Drew Pember, UNC Asheville (SR)
C Hunter Dickinson, Kansas (SR)
F/C Xavier Booker, Michigan State (FR)
G Aidan Mahaney, St. Mary’s (FR)
G Wooga Popular, Miami (JR)
Terrence Edwards, JMU (SR)
Same thing as the last tier: stuff changes a lot, and I expect to see a few of these guys sliding up or down at any given time. There’s some undeniably high potential in this tier, with some freshmen surely looking at throwing their hat in the ring. Two big ones are Carr and Booker, who will look to keep pushing Michigan State to improve sooner than later. The former in particular is one of the better athletes I’ve seen in the main school circuit and I expect to see him keep rising. Mahaney’s also making a big case to jump up a tier at St. Mary’s. A few others, such as Gayle and Vide, have high-level potential that should keep them pushing upwards. One who concerns me a bit is Pember out of UNC Asheville, who posted fantasy superstar legend numbers yet chose to stay once small again and needs to prove himself once again.
Tier 8: UDFAs (No specific order)
G Mark Armstrong, Villanova (SO)
G Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga (JR)
G Javian McCollum, Oklahoma (JR)
F/C Felix Okpara, Ohio State (FR)
C Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton (SR)
G Nikola Durisic, Mega Mozart (2004)
F/C Ruben Prey, Portugal (2005)
G/F Mike Sharavjamts, San Francisco (SO)
G Aden Holloway, Auburn (FR)
F Arthur Kaluma, Kansas State (JR)
G Caleb Love, Arizona (SR)
F/C Tolu Smith, Mississippi State (SR)
G Jameer Nelson Jr., TCU (SR)
F/C Jayden Quaintance, TBD (2005)
G Johnell Davis, FAU (JR)
F/C Zach Austin, Pitt (JR)
G Reed Sheppard, Kentucky (FR)
Jackson Paveletzke, Iowa State (SO)
Definitely some notables in this tier and planty of young players finding their footing and upperclassmen looking to make their splash where they can. There’s a few I’m keeping close on a watchlist for this year and potentially beyond if they stay, such as Quaintance (who i’m still waiting to declare to a school), Okpara, McCollum, Armstrong and Sharavjamts. A personal favorite I’m watching is Jackson Paveletzke, who I really liked watching in his freshman season at Wofford. Though he’s got a small role this season, I don’t think it’s going to be surprising seeing him working into an expanded role that might really pop in 2024-2025 if he stays. Still, the talent is 100% there and NBA scouts should be keeping their eyes on him.
Well, that should about do it for my first tiered mock. I’ve got a lot here and surely some things you’ll disagree with. What did I get right/wrong, and who should be on my list next time that I missed? Feel free to leave a comment either on my Substack or Twitter and follow for more draft content!