Dynasty Deep Dive: Jordan Nwora, IND

Forward Jordan Nwora has found a new home with the Indiana Pacers and has begun to blossom in higher minutes and starts. What can we make of Nwora's potential 2nd half breakout and long-term role?

Jordan Nwora has been a name I’ve followed closely since being drafted 45th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks in 2020. After becoming a breakout sophomore star during Chris Mack’s first season in Louisville in 2018-2019 and helping them into their first and only NCAA Tournament bid in the post-Rick Pitino years, Nwora excelled as Louisville’s best player in his sophomore and junior seasons.

However, scouts never seemed overly excited by his potential. Though he possessed rotation wing strengths as a catch-and-shoot threat, rim finisher and solid rebounder as an older prospect, he was truly only seen as that with his highest upside coming from his ability to shoot 3s at the next level and improving his bigger defensive deficiencies.

For a long time with the Bucks, it seemed that Nwora could become a key contributor and scorer off the bench, especially at a time in which the Bucks were a bottom 5 team in bench scoring. Though there were stretches of G League stints or small-time minutes, there were clear indications of his strength. 2021 saw Nwora take a step up when the minutes were given to him. In his 3 games where he played over 30 minutes (2 of which were starts), despite these all being games without any of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday, Nwora still averaged 26.3 points, 10 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 1 steal and 0.6 blocks on 52%/46.7%/66.7% shooting. For the entire season on 9.1 MPG, he averaged 5.7 points, 2 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.2 blocks and 0.8 turnovers on 45.9%/45.2%/76%. However, it was clear that Nwora would require some more development and game experience in order to make improvements to his scoring profile and defense.

In 2021-2022, Nwora began to receive more of a rotation role with his MPG jumping from 9.1 to 19.1. However, despite his averages all jumping up as a result of his higher minutes (7.9pts/3.0rbd/1.6ast/0.4stl/0.3blk on 40.3%/34.8%/83.7%) and received 13 starts in a higher 62 games played, Nwora’s 2nd season was far more turbulent than the numbers showed. Though he had some decent games on higher minutes, Nwora’s shooting began to diminish and all of his percentages began to sour with more volume. When faced with more of a rotation 3&D role that was intended to stop the bleeding when Antetokounmpo or Middleton sat, Nwora suffered from so-so shot selection even in catch-and-shoot situations, bad defense that resulted in head coach Mike Budenholzer pulling Nwora frequently from games and increased turnovers that made him hard to keep out there. Yet, with fewer options, the Bucks did not have terribly many options deeper into the rotation.

2022-2023 saw more regression from Nwora’s overall numbers and worse shooting and defense that made him difficult to play at times, especially considering his offensive shortcomings with his shooting that began to develop. Though he received a 2-year extension prior to the season and still had some stronger games when earning higher higher minutes where he netted 6.8pts/3.2rbd/1.2ast/0.4stl/0.2blk off 40.8%/38.6%/81.1%, it was clear that Nwora was not a likely keeper long-term in favor of another defensive-minded forward that reflected more of a fluid 3&D role for the 2nd unit. The Bucks needed more of a plug-and-play option that can operate both ways, especially with the context of Middleton’s injury-plagued season that called for a greater need of bench functionality.

As a result, Nwora was involved in the blockbuster 4-team trade that sent F Kevin Durant and F TJ Warren to the Phoenix Suns, G/F Mikal Bridges, F Cameron Johnson and 4 first round picks (with a 2028 first round swap and 2 second round picks) to the Brooklyn Nets, F Jae Crowder to the Milwaukee Bucks, and G George Hill, F/C Serge Ibaka, F Jordan Nwora, 3 second round picks and cash considerations to the Indiana Pacers.

Before we discuss Nwora’s play so far in Indiana and discuss what his dynasty potential might be, let’s first look at this deal in context from the Pacers’ side of things. The first thing to note is that they essentially get Hill, Nwora (after waiving Ibaka) and 3 second round picks for nothing more than padding out this deal with open roster spots and cap space to spend. Additionally, while Hill will surely sign elsewhere next season as his 2-year/$8 million deal expires, what’s encouraging is that Nwora is still on the hook for a light $3.2 million for the 2023-2024 season. With some other contracts potentially coming off the books for the Pacers in the 2023 offseason (Oshae Brissett, James Johnson, Kendall Brown), it is abundantly clear that Nwora is worthy of holding onto from the Pacers with his light cap hit and one more year of retainment.

It’s also worth noting that the Pacers are admittedly weak at forward depth that opens up a real opportunity to step up. For much of the season, the 29-37 Pacers have mixed in Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith and Oshae Brissett with some ultimately underwhelming results, with the former in Nesmith being the best option so far as a starter with some capable 3&D and scoring chops despite some so-so results. Before the Nwora trade, it’s been very clear that, despite Smith’s post-deadline explosion at the end of 2021-2022 and middling follow-up in 2022-2023, Nesmith’s decent rise and the looming potential of a Buddy Hield trade, there are simply too many questions about fluid or solidified starting wing and forward options on the roster. Nwora has an immediate ability to score and bring translatable skills where the Pacers have struggled.

And based on the numbers from Nwora thus far, it appears that the Pacers may have found one option to hang onto as a possible starter. In just 8 games and 2 starts with Nesmith suffering a hip injury, Nwora has posted 10.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.1 blocks on 47.1%/36.7%/60% shooting in just 20.9 MPG. Even though some of Nwora’s defensive deficiencies remained in these games and played only 22 and 20 minutes in each start (during a 3/5/2023-3/6/2023 back-to-back), his per-minute stats were incredibly strong, averaging 13 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists on 52.6%/37.5%/60% in 21 minutes in both starts. While this isn’t a sample size we can obviously trust yet, it’s very clear that Nwora possesses the ability to score on high minutes in a more clear role considering his averages and the fact that he has plenty over 16 minutes in all but one game so far. What entices me the most about Nwora is how his game can expand outward beyond his scoring into his rebounds and assists. While Nwora has had some high-rebound games with the Bucks in blowouts and rest days, he may be capable of bringing more to the table on a regular basis. On 2/25/2023, Nwora posted 18 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 1 steal in just 21 minutes off 66.7%/20%/33.3%. Despite the Magic’s weak defense, this being something of an outlier game for Nwora in terms of his statistical per-minute production and Nesmith ending up in foul trouble early, this suggests Nwora has the propensity for regular well-roundedness to his game when given the right opportunity, and has certainly shown that in his higher minutes allowing for more on-ball play with the Pacers.

When considering this from a dynasty perspective, Nwora is someone that is clearly deserving of being rostered in some leagues. I would dare to imagine that he is already being held in many deeper leagues, but in general, I feel he should be a considerable stash option in leagues that roster less than 200-250 players if he can continue to receive consistent 20+ minute play. It is clear that the Pacers have been very good at a second draft opportunity for players when switching to a new team with opportunity over the years, both in the longer and shorter term (see: Tyrese Haliburton, Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith, Buddy Hield, and so on). However, there are two main factors that give me some long-term concerns on what he ultimately can be for fantasy.

The first and biggest factor of this equation is the Pacers’ roster. As we discussed earlier, there are a lack of current players that really suit the need for quality wings and forward depth that is needed for this Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner-led team to become a considerable force. Though Nwora is ideally the best one of the bunch followed by Nesmith right now, there is a high probability that the Pacers will look to bolster these spots in the draft. Moreover, the Pacers have a total of 4 picks in the top 32 of this 2023 draft. As of today, they have their own 2023 first round pick (currently 6th best odds/9% chance at the 1st overall pick and 37.2% at a top 4 pick), the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2023 first round pick (acquired by trading G/F Caris LeVert at the 2021-2022 trade deadline, currently projected as the 26th overall pick), the Boston Celtics’ 2023 first round pick (acquired by trading G Malcolm Brogdon in the 2022-2023 offseason; currently projected as the 28th overall pick), and the Houston Rockets’ 2023 second round pick (acquired via the 4-team trade involving G Victor Oladipo in 2021; currently projected at 32nd overall). When considering this many picks in a draft class as thoroughly deep as it is, it is perfectly reasonable to guess that the Pacers should plan to draft at least one forward and wing each. Of course, a team is only as good as its outside depth and Nwora poses that even in a situation of remaining largely on the bench, but it is undeniable that better, younger options are to be found.

The other factor that makes a larger difference on this is Nwora’s defensive ability. As discussed earlier on, Nwora has been lackluster on defense and it remains in Indiana, currently posting a career-low at a below-average -1.7 DBPM, 118 DRTG and a -3.1 defensive RAPTOR. Though it is his offense and uptick in usage and minutes that helps bolster his stats, it is very evident that his defense still leaves a lot to be desired. Nwora certainly has some room to grow with good size and a coach in Rick Carlisle that seems dedicated to his development and consistent play and with less pressure to bring it both ways for competitive play, but being an older player without that skill even dating back to college in spite of having the tools certainly makes one question his growth.

However, even in spite of those things, it is very obvious that Nwora has offensive potential to his game and with a team that can do something with his scoring off the bench long-term. He’s a cheap wing that can do things well despite being limited one way, and players like that can always be valuable enough to maintain and see what happens. I think Nwora’s remainder of the 2022-2023 season and how he translates that over into next season with new faces on the roster is going to be an important situation to monitor.

Ultimately, I feel that Nwora should definitely be held for the remainder of this season to see how he continues to play. It will be crucial to see how he and Nesmith coexist once Nesmith is fully back to health. As stated earlier, my feeling is that he should be a fringe hold in leagues that roster less than 200 players. He also might be a good option to watch for in redraft leagues as the season winds down for the Pacers, who are further outside of the playoff race towards the end. For deeper leagues, such as those in 18, 24 or 30-team leagues, I would guess he is likely being held already. If I were a Nwora owner, I might consider selling higher in the offseason after a full view of his Pacers season if the offer is right, just as I may consider selling Nesmith as well, with a good overview of what potential he shows. I may be wrong to use Jalen Smith as recency bias of this, but there certainly is a good chance that this post-deadline performance could be a mirage, and four incoming players into this team seeking to build up something new centered around a star like Haliburton should give some concern on this Pacers’ 2nd unit and depth.

Thanks for reading! If you like this first post of many to come, please share and sound off in the comments. Am I way off or on the mark? Do you think Nwora is a future building block? Would you like to see more dynasty deep dives into specific players or a big report on a bunch of players? Let me know!