Jaylon Tyson, Ajay Mitchell, Jonathan Mogbo, Adama Bal
Brian breaks down the top prospects from the Northern California area. Brian breaks down wing Jaylon Tyson, guard Ajay Mitchell, big Jonathan Mogbo, and wing Adama-Alpha Bal.
Outside of UCLA and USC, there’s still quite a few prospects in California. Two of these prospects played in the WCC, one in the Pac-12, and one in the Big West. California was a bit of a disappointment this season but they had one big bright spot for them this season. UC Santa Barbara had a bad year but they have one very solid prospect on their roster. Santa Clara and San Francisco both had good years.
Jaylon Tyson/California
(Courtesy of Kelley L. Cox)
Jaylon Tyson has had a crazy ride in college so far. His freshman season where he played sparingly, he played a decent amount for Texas Tech. After that, he transferred to California where he has been the guy and has really flashed his scoring ability. Tyson had little to no help on offense which caused him to basically run the show as a point forward.
My Personal Opinion
I don’t think we can look at his year this year and get a full picture on him. He played such a different role at Texas Tech as a defending guy and low usage player and at California, it was the exact opposite. I’m concerned about the advanced numbers with Tyson, however the team is a big factor of it. If you look at the year at Texas Tech, Tyson looks a lot better. So what do I get out of this? The name out of the player comparisons that stands out to me the most is Wendell Moore Jr. I feel like Wendell Moore was a lot more out of control than what Jaylon Tyson was. Tyson is bigger than Moore as well, but I also am worried since there are a lot of similarities. I think Tyson is better from a prospect perspective but it worries me that Wendell Moore has been a complete non-factor. I have Tyson in the first round currently but I’d feel good about him being drafted in the top 40.
Fantasy
It’s hard to tell with Tyson because of the role. If Tyson is going to be a scorer, there’s more appeal but Tyson has shown he can be an off ball player. If Jaylon Tyson is playing the same role in the NBA, he’ll be a top 60 player, but I don’t think he’s good enough to be that player. If he does pan out, I think he could have a top 100 season but there’s nothing there that stands out as elite.
If Jaylon fails in the league, Why?
It’s possible that he isn’t an NBA talent. He put up numbers on a bad team this year and the advanced numbers show that he wasn’t that impactful. He was alright as a sophomore at Texas Tech, and he will need to show he can defend if he’s going to stick. I think the shot is real but it’s possible he struggles to shoot at the next level.
Obviously Tyson isn’t Harden, but some other names that stand out a bit are Dillon Brooks, Chandler Hutchison, Mason Jones. Worth noting it to say the least.
Big Performance Highlights
January 20th vs. Washington State
30 Pts, 9 Reb, 5 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 Blk, 1 To, 10-23, 1-4 3PT, 9-10 FT
This was one of Tyson’s best fantasy lines of the season. Washington State had a very good year and was a high tournament team. California won in overtime by 6 and so it’s a very good performance here and was really clutch down the stretch.
27 Pts, 7 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 Blk, 11-23 FG, 1-4 3PT, 4-4 FT
This was one of his best games of the season. California ended up winning by 5 and Oregon made the tournament this season. Tyson was an absolute problem for Oregon and he could not be stopped.
Ajay Mitchell/UC Santa Barbara
Michael Ciaglo-USA TODAY Sports
Ajay Mitchell is a scoring guard that is originally from Belgium. He decided to make the jump to UC Santa Barbara where he was running as the main guy on the team. While he has had an up and down season due to injuries, he has flashed quite a bit and gets scouts excited.
(Also note, when I say Jalen Brunson, I’m talking about Dallas Jalen Brunson. He is not as twitchy or as strong as Brunson was in college)
My Personal Opinion
There’s a lot to like here with Ajay. I really like that he has plus size which should help him on the next level. I’m a little concerned about the level of competition he was playing in the Big West, but there are good players that have come out of that league. He has a real ability to score the ball and get into the rim. I am concerned that he was just bullying up less talented players for most of the season. He had a couple good games against good opponents but I wonder how he will adjust going to the NBA level. There’s a lot to like from him from a scoring and passing perspective but he’ll be someone that the combine and team workouts swing his stock quite a bit.
Fantasy
If he’s running at a similar role in the NBA, there’s a route for a top 80 season. I don’t think it will happen, but I would imagine what Jalen Brunson was in his first few seasons in the league where he was a top 200-250 player. The advanced numbers aren’t crazy but they aren’t terrible.
If Ajay fails in the league, Why?
He’s not good enough defensively to stay on the court. While he does have good size, he hasn’t been a positive in a bad league defensively. If he isn’t being elite scoring the ball, Ajay could get fazed out of a teams plans very quickly. He will also need a good fit in order to stick, and he could be put in a bad situation early on which could hamper his chances.
So obviously he’s not Ja Morant or James Harden, but there’s some similarity statistically to Nate Wolters and Grant Riller. Ajay is bigger but it does concern me that he has a lower BPM and the advanced numbers aren’t great in general.
Big Performance Highlights
22 Pts, 5 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 To, 4-17 FG, 0-2 3PT, 14-14 FT
This game wasn’t spectacular from Ajay Mitchell but it was undoubtedly a good game. The reason I included this is that this is the only game all season where they played a very good team. They played Howard and Long Beach State but neither of whom were that impressive. New Mexico was and New Mexico really keyed in on Ajay here. The impressive thing is that he got to the line 14 times and hit them all. New Mexico won this game by 23.
March 13th vs. Cal State Northridge
36 Pts, 9 Reb, 5 Ast, 3 Stl, 5 To, 10-21 FG, 5-12 3PT, 11-12 FT
This was the only tournament game that UC Santa Barbara played all season and they lost in overtime. Ajay Mitchell was single handedly keeping them in the game and he put up this monster. It’s really hard to fault what he did here. He made some clutch plays down the stretch.
Jonathan Mogbo/San Francisco
(Courtesy of Eduardo Garcia)
Jonathan Mogbo started out at JUCO and eventually made his way up to San Francisco where his advanced numbers are one of the best in the country. It’s been so out of nowhere it’s honestly funny. Watching his film is something else too. He’s also a pretty confusing evaluation.
Note: Only the stats from his seasons at Missouri State and San Francisco
Personal Opinion
Mogbo is a really fun watch. He’s very skilled and what he’s able to do with his size is what makes him very interesting. My big concern with him is his size. I think it’s going to be tough for him to play PF due to his shot, so he’s a really undersized center. If he’s with a good fit with him, it can definitely work. I really don’t know who he reminds me of. I put those player comparisons but he just has shades of them 3. Looking at a barttorvik simulator for Mogbo. I still don’t know. I didn’t include 3 Pointers but honestly it doesn’t matter. For what it's worth, he’s not Zion Williamson, nor is he Mikal Bridges. There aren’t many bigs that can pass like he can.
Fantasy
This is a potential fantasy stud if he hits. What I’m most excited for Mogbo here is, he had this season while having a 22% usage. He was basically running as the PG at San Francisco, and I think he might be able to do that a little bit in the NBA. A very good rebounder, lob threat, gets good defensive stats. If he starts, I think he could be a top 50 player. Big men can do that but he has tantalizing upside for those in dynasty leagues. Currently he’s not a ton of mocks, but depending on how he trends getting close to draft time (if he’s even in the draft), he might be a real bargain of a late pick in rookie drafts.
If Jonathan fails in the league, Why?
Complete lack of shot makes him close to unplayable on the floor. His lack of size hurts him as he tries to play center. He struggles to defend the more physically dominant big men and his team could set him up to fail. If he starts out with a team without a stretch 5, it could make things difficult for him.
Big Performance Highlights
14 Pts, 9 Reb, 2 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 Blk, 3 To, 7-12 FG,
San Francisco lost to Utah State by 1 point here and it was a good game by a team that was very good in Utah State. Mogbo stuffed the statsheet here. Mogbo was doing all the dirty work to keep this game close for the Dons.
30 Pts, 18 Reb, 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 10-13 FG, 10-10 FT
This was Mogbo’s best game of the season and it’s not even close. This game went into overtime and won it by 2 points. Pacific was not a good team this season, but this statline from Mogbo is crazy good. He dominated the glass in this one.
It’s also worth noting that Mogbo did struggle a bit against some of the better teams, like Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. He was still good but not as impactful.
Adama Bal/Santa Clara
(Courtesy of Jeff Fung)
Adama-Alpha Bal is a french wing that is currently playing at Santa Clara. After being on the bench for his first two seasons at Arizona, he transferred to get some playing time where he has flashed as a scoring wing with some length.
My Personal Opinion
I started out really liking him but have soured a bit over time on his outlook. I wonder if there is a bit of a “Santa Clara Benefit of the Doubt.” Which it does sound silly but the fact that Jalen Williams and Brandin Podzemski have had impacts as rookies, are probably influencing people’s thoughts on Adama Bal. Adama is a tier level below those two as prospects. There isn’t anything that stands out as elite with Adama and that worries me a little bit. The advanced numbers aren’t great but I also do give him a bit of the benefit of the doubt, as he hasn’t played a ton for two seasons until now. He is still 20 as well so there could be more growth coming for Bal. I have some interest in Bal but I wonder if his archetype is one that will struggle to make an impact. Unless he becomes a better defender, I just struggle to see him on the court. Having a 1.3 BPM as a Junior in college is a pretty big red flag for me as well.
Fantasy
Fantasy wise, there isn’t a lot there that screams a future fantasy star. If he does hit and start, I imagine he’s one of those players that is around the top 150 as opposed to being someone that’s relevant for most fantasy players. The passing is interesting but I don’t think he will be playing with the ball in his hands in the NBA.
If Adama fails in the league, Why?
He isn’t good enough to play in the NBA. The lack of defense really hurts his chances to get on the court. It is pretty easy to see an off ball role for Bal, but he’s not really the type of off ball player that you expect out of shooters that struggle to defend. He has good size but if he’s a worse version of Jerome Robinson, it isn’t going to last very long for him in the league. He was basically out of the league after his rookie contract.
Even by going off this list, there are quite a bit of similarities to someone like Elijah Hughes, Michael Gbinije, Darrun Hilliard. Jalen Williams, Evan Turner, Josh Richardson, Dillon Brooks were all way better defenders in college. If Adama were to get drafted, he’d be on this list.
Big Performance Highlights
December 16th vs. Washington State
23 Pts, 1 Reb, 2 Ast, 4 To, 6-9 FG, 3-4 3PT, 8-8 FT
Santa Clara won this game by 8, and Washington State was a very good team this season. As you can see from a fantasy line, Adama Bal has a really empty line. He still was a big reason why they won the game, we would just like to see some more abilities.
28 Pts, 1 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 To, 7-13 FG, 2-5 3PT, 12-12 FT
Bal dominated this game by getting to the free throw line a ton. He still made a decent amount of his shots to get the 6 point win over Pepperdine, though Pepperdine wasn’t that good this year. Again similar to what happened to the game before.
Final Thoughts
Jaylon Tyson is a potential two way wing if put in the right role. Jaylon is someone that is definitely worth taking a flier on but teams will need to do their homework on him to make sure he gets put in a good position. I currently have Jaylon Tyson at 28 on my board. I have been hot and cold on him this season. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Jaylon Tyson went 31th to the Utah Jazz.
Ajay Mitchell is a scoring guard that can really put the ball in the basket but has questions defensively. When Ajay is hot, he’s really hard to stop but when he’s not or playing hurt, his weaknesses show a lot more. I feel like I’m a bit lower on Ajay than consensus but I still have him draftable. I have him at 54 on my board. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Ajay Mitchell went 32nd to the Toronto Raptors.
Jonathan Mogbo is a skilled big who can pass and has good athleticism. He has had some buzz in some places but in a lot of places, he’s still not being mocked. I really like the potential of Mogbo but I think it’s pretty fit dependent. I have him just outside my top 60 on my board. Mogbo wasn’t selected in the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock.
Adama Bal is a scoring guard that has a bit of potential that can pass. Adama is another player that has gotten a lot of buzz in a lot of places, mainly social media, but a little bit in certain outlets. I like the idea of Bal more than the reality of Adama Bal, and I’m frankly more concerned now than I was before I started doing his report. I have Adama inside my top 100 for now, and if he went back to school, I don’t think that would be an incorrect decision. However, I also recognize I’m a lot lower than consensus on Adama Bal. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Adama Bal went 51st to the Washington Wizards.