Kentucky Part 1: Robert Dillingham, Antonio Reeves, DJ Wagner, Ugonna Onyenso
Brian breaks down half of the Kentucky prospects for the NBA Draft. He goes over guard Rob Dillingham, guard Antonio Reeves, guard DJ Wagner, and big man Ugonna Onyenso.
This is part one of two parts for the University of Kentucky. Kentucky has a lot of prospects that have gotten some buzz in the draft space. However, their buzz has been nothing compared to recent news of John Calipari leaving Kentucky and Mark Pope heading to Kentucky. It is a new era in Kentucky basketball. So let’s break down Calipari’s last Kentucky class.
Side Note: I’ve been busy this week and didn't get this article done when I wanted, but we are here now. It has worked out since a lot of the Kentucky guys ended up making some decisions. I will discuss the decisions of Aaron Bradshaw and Zvonimir Ivisic in the next part.
Robert Dillingham/Kentucky
Drew Brown - A Sea Of Blue
Robert Dillingham has had a pretty crazy ride to this point. He decided to go to Overtime Elite where he was primarily known as a shot chucker. He originally committed to NC State but Calipari ended up getting him to change his mind and go to Kentucky. Calipari reeled him in and he’s been incredible this season.
Personal Opinion
I go back and forth on him so much. I get why people are excited but I also think that mocks having him in the top 3 is getting a little rich for me. The size is a concern, the lack of defense is a concern, and UNLESS he’s Darius Garland as an offensive player, I don’t think a top 3 grade is warranted. I don’t think he’s going to end up being Garland, but the other 3 comparisons listed, are all very talented offensive players. The lack of defense concerns me and the fit worries me. He’s someone where after the draft, I could have him in the top 3. However, I also could see him slide. The talent is undeniable with him, it's just risky.
Fantasy
There is some monster fantasy potential if he hits, because if he hits, he will hit big. We are looking at a top 30 player if that happens. However, the risk comes in where if he doesn’t hit, he could be someone that’s a streamer, or someone that struggles to get playing time. The points and efficiency is the appeal. There is a bit of appeal in assists, but there’s a risk he goes back to his OTE days, depending where he goes and what the environment is.
If Rob fails in the league, Why?
He goes back to his shot chucking days and he hijacks an offense. His lack of size hurts him defensively and he struggles to get on the court because of it. For example, no one denies Bones Hyland’s scoring ability. However, aside from the character stuff, there is a reason why the Clippers weren’t playing him, and why the Nuggets got better without him.
Obviously this doesn’t bring up the highest rated names, but Fultz was a monster in college. VanVleet, McConnell, Winston, Evans, Baldwin were all very good college players. The track record isn’t the best, but there are star outcomes. Dillingham is more talented than most of these players here, so there is still a chance.
Big Performance Highlights
35 Pts, 1 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 To, 14-20 FG, 6-8 3PT, 1-3 FT
Tennessee is one of the most physical, defensive minded teams in the country. In 27 minutes, Rob Dillingham dropped 35 points. Tennessee won by 11 points, so that is worth noting, but Dillingham was a monster in this game. Kentucky couldn’t stop anyone else in this game, but Dillingham was the only reason this game was close.
27 Pts, 4 Reb, 7 Ast, 5 To, 9-19 FG, 5-10 3PT, 4-4 FT
Kentucky lost this game by 10, and the 5 TO absolutely hurts him, but Dillingham had another really solid game, and a very fantasy friendly one at that. Dillingham led the team in scoring in this game. This was their only game in the SEC tournament, and they lost in the first round.
Antonio Reeves/Kentucky
Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
The steady force on Kentucky’s team. Antonio Reeves is a very good scorer for this Kentucky team. He is the first person to average 20 points per game under Coach Calipari, since Jamal Murray in 2016. He’s the leading guy on this team and was the only player that was able to do any damage against Oakland in the NCAA tournament.
Personal Opinion
I like the idea of him, but the problem is that his archetype is one that doesn’t tend to have a very good hit rate long term. I think there’s a chance he lasts in the league for a few years but the lack of defense is a concern to me. Especially at his size and age at this point.
Fantasy
The scoring and the efficiency are the appeal, but the problem is that there’s not a lot else there. Even if he were to hit, and be starting, I don’t think he’d be a top 100 player, but just one of those streamers that goes on and off waivers.
If Antonio fails in the league, Why?
This season has been by far his best season. What happens if he regresses back to what his average in college? That’s out of the league. The defense could keep him off the court and there can be questions offensively.
I’m using the same simulator I used for Hunter Sallis. He’s going to need to be the shooter Luke Kennard is in order to really have a fair chance.
Big Performance Highlights
December 29th vs. Illinois State
27 Pts, 6 Reb, 2 Ast, 10-15 FG, 4-8 3PT, 3-3 FT
I thought it would be funny to put this one in for the sole purpose of highlighting a “Revenge Game” for Reeves. He put up this statline on his former team and played really well in this game. This game was a blowout as you’d expect.
24 Pts, 2 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl, 7-10 FG, 2-3 3PT, 8-9 FT
Kentucky put up 117 points in this 22 point blow out against the Rolling Tide, so there were a lot of big performances. Reeves' performance got lost in the shuffle in this one, with Justin Edwards having a breakout game. But Reeves shows here what he could provide if he hits.
DJ Wagner/Kentucky
Dylan Ballard - A Sea Of Blue
DJ Wagner has a chance to be the first ever 3rd generation NBA player in league history. He was a top HS recruit and committed to Kentucky because of his relationship with John Calipari. He had an underwhelming season but flashed a little bit.
Personal Opinion
I know it’s crazy I’m doing a report on him despite my opinion on him, but please go back. Like he’s not ready. He could be good, but right now he’s not. He could end up like Daishen Nix and just bounce around G League teams when college should have been the route.
Fantasy
If he eventually figures it out, he does have some scoring ability and he doesn’t turn the ball over very much. The advanced stats are bad which is a concern. Kentucky benefit of the doubt with him, but we will see. I don’t imagine he will be a very enticing fantasy player unless the efficiency improves
If DJ fails in the league, Why?
I think it's pretty obvious? He’s not ready. His scoring ability is his strength and if he can’t do it efficiently, he won’t play. He’s small and not that good defensively. His lack of elite skills could hurt him quite a bit too.
Big Performance Highlights
28 Pts, 1 Reb, 5 Ast, 3 Stl, 1 Blk, 1 To, 10-14 FG, 2-5 3PT, 6-7 FT
This was Wagner’s best game of the season. This game was a 36 point win for Kentucky and Wagner had the best line of the night in this one. He was obviously hitting shots and got some outlier peripheral numbers for his averages.
December 16th vs. North Carolina
14 Pts, 6 Reb, 5 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 To, 6-14 FG, 2-4 3PT, 0-1 FT
This was Wagner’s best game against a tournament team this season and this one against North Carolina was alright. Kentucky won this game by 4 points and Wagner played alright in this one. Defensively in this one is a bit of a question, as RJ Davis went off for 27, but he’s a good player.
Ugonna Onyenso/Kentucky
Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Out of the 3 centers in Kentucky, Ugonna Onyenso definitely had the least amount of buzz. I debated whether or not I was gonna make a breakdown on him, but that decision was made for me when he announced that he will enter and stay in the draft. Here’s the tweet if anyone wanted to see it. He talked about how he didn’t get to showcase what he could do and saying that he could shoot.
Personal Opinion
I think he’s honestly making a mistake. It’s true that he did outplay both Zvonimir Ivisic and Aaron Bradshaw down the stretch of the season. However, we need to remember that all 3 of these players are very raw and the only one that could do anything defensively was Onyenso, so he got the nod. He also didn’t need the ball in his hands, so it worked out. At this point, teams aren’t dumb, and if you aren’t good defensively, it doesn’t matter how many blocked shots you get.
Fantasy
I mean if he plays, he will block shots. He might win you a week as a streamer if he plays 15 minutes and gets 3 blocks. In terms of anything else, there’s very little else that's appealing at all.
If Ugonna fails in the league, Why?
He gets fazed out like Hassan Whiteside and teams realize that, he’s not good defensively and he’s not talented or polished enough to be on the court. Might seem harsh but this is how simple it is.
Now there’s 3 names that stand out. Walker Kessler, Jeff Withey, and Hassan Whiteside. (All 3 played for the Jazz funny enough), but it's worth pointing out that Onyenso is so far away in the other metrics that it's hard even considering it. There’s a chance, not a good chance, but a chance.
Big Performance Highlights
13 Pts, 16 Reb, 2 Stl, 8 Blk, 4-11 FG, 5-6 FT
This was Onyenso’s best game of the season, which is kinda sad considering how inefficient he was. He played 33 minutes in this one, and put up this monster fantasy line. Kentucky lost this game by 3 in overtime. There was no Zvonimir Ivisic in this one.
8 Pts, 2 Reb, 10 Blk, 2 To, 3-3 FG, 2-4 FT
Kentucky won this game by 12 points and Onyenso was a big part of that, as he was able to block 10 shots, and slow down Mississippi’s bigs. You’d like more statistically than this on a normal basis though.
Final Thoughts
Rob Dillingham is an electric scoring guard that came off the bench. He has a special scoring ability and really improved as a passer. There is a risk that he reverts back to his shot chucking ways, but the talent is immense. I have been a little bit on the lower side on Dillingham, but get why people are excited. I have Rob Dillingham at 11 on my big board. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Rob Dillingham went 9th to the Utah Jazz.
Antonio Reeves has been the engine on this Kentucky team this season. He’s a good scorer and can do it off the catch. Everything else is a question mark but he can at least do that. He is a bit older, so he needs to be elite at what he does. I have Antonio Reeves in my top 80 and I feel pretty good about that. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Antonio Reeves went undrafted.
DJ Wagner is a scoring guard that didn’t do it very efficiently. He has potential and the Kentucky benefit of the doubt is real with him, but there are some questions that need answered. I have DJ Wagner outside of my top 100 currently. I just think he needs to go back, and if he comes out this year, I wouldn’t be willing to give him more than an Exhibit 10 deal. I know I’m very low on him, and some people have him as high as the first round, but that seems extremely unlikely unless he booms at the combine. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, DJ Wagner went undrafted.
Ugonna Onyenso is a shot-blocking big man that declared for the draft. He’s very raw in other areas, but has that one elite skill. He will need to develop a lot if he has a legitimate chance. I have Ugonna Onyenso outside of my top 100. In the recent Dizzle DynastyMock, Ugonna Onyenso went undrafted.