Revisiting the 2020 NBA Draft
Brian breaks down his 2020 NBA Big Board and breaks down where he went right and where he went wrong.
I will analyzing my 2020 Big Board, 4 years later, and assessing my hits and misses. Obviously, this won’t be perfect. It’s impossible to get it 100% correct. There are so many factors. However, if the reasoning is right and the placement is in range relative to consensus, it is a hit. If not, its a miss. I know it is very easy to see this is my big board now, but trust me, this is what it was. While doing this exercise I feel like I learned a lot looking back on it too.
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LaMelo Ball/Illawarra
Verdict: Hit
LaMelo Ball had talent. He was good enough at Illawarra in order for me to place him #1. We could talk about the character concerns, the injuries, and the lack of success in Charlotte, but at the end of the day, its hard to project a landing spot. We hope he gets healthy and gets back on his track to be an All-Star, but time will tell.
Killian Hayes/Ratiopharm Ulm
Verdict: Miss
Yeah, I’ll raise my hand up. I had Killian Hayes at 2. Obviously that was wrong. What could I have done differently? Well, I should have put a bit more placement on people’s thoughts on him before that season. However, I should have been watching his shooting, and his role at Ratiopharm. It was almost like he was showcased for the NBA and his strengths were overly emphasized and his weaknesses were overly minimized.
Onyeka Okongwu/USC
Verdict: Miss
This one is tough because I think the process was right. The only issue is he ended up in Atlanta. Okongwu has been about 60% of what I expected, and I feel like if he ended up in a situation that would have allowed him to start earlier on, I feel like I would feel better about this. It was too high, but he wasn’t put in a good position to succeed yet.
Devin Vassell/Florida State
Verdict: Hit
Vassell has been basically what I’ve expected. He ended up in a good situation in San Antonio and developed into a good scorer. Now, I felt like he’d be better defensively but part of that is his build. Vassell got a max contract which is something I wasn’t expecting either but he’s a good player.
Anthony Edwards/Georgia
Verdict: Miss
Now, this one is pretty easy on why I missed here. It may seem silly to look back on it now, but it bothered me. He was not a winning player growing up. High School and in Georgia. He had all the tools you could ever want. However, you also had the article about how he’d drop Basketball for Football and the work ethic concerns. Now, I was reading another article about how in his workout in Golden State, Steve Kerr was trying to push him a lot and he didn’t respond as he wanted. However, his personality and his humility was the difference. That’s something that we couldn’t really see as a fan. He’s on his way to be a hall of famer
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Tyrese Haliburton
Verdict: Hit
I would consider this one more of a hit than Edwards. Halliburton has almost been what I expected. Just better overall. I was expecting more of a 2nd-3rd option of Haliburton instead of a 1-2 type, but the feel was good, the shooting was good. He ended up in a great spot in Sacramento early on and then an even better situation in Indiana when he was ready for it.
Deni Avdija/Maccabi Tel Aviv
Verdict: Hit
Avdija hasn’t been spectacular but he’s on a good track right now. He’s right around 7, probably on a lower side in a redraft. I wish Washington used him more on ball as a passer but it is what it is. He’s still be decent off ball, the shot hasn’t fully developed yet so that’s a concern but in Portland he won’t have the ball in his hands, so he’s probably just going to be who he is. I had Nic Batum as a comp for him and that still sounds about right.
Kira Lewis/Alabama
Verdict: Miss
It’s hard to completely know what would have happened if he didn’t tear his ACL after his rookie season. Now it was too high but I still find it a bit hard that he couldn’t have ended up being a backup PG in the NBA. He’s done good in the G League but it couldn’t scale up from there. However, I clearly over estimated his abilities and shouldn’t have had him at 8.
James Wiseman/Memphis
Verdict: Hit
I was very low on James Wiseman according to the consensus. The tools were always there but I didn’t like how he got worse at Memphis in his 3 games. He was still pretty raw and he ended up in a very high pressure situation in Golden State. Then he got put in Detroit. He had an opportunity to start in Golden State but he’s been so bad on defense that he hasn’t been able to stay on the court. I wonder how Okongwu and Wiseman’s career’s would have ended up being if they swapped places. Now, Wiseman has been much worse than 9 in real life, but given his profile, high school pedigree, and the circumstances, you still should be taking someone like Wiseman top 10 at least.
Desmond Bane/TCU
Verdict: Hit
I still wasn’t high enough after having Bane several tiers over where consensus had him. The main thing I wasn’t expecting was I wasn’t expecting him to start being aggressive and having some on ball ability. I was expecting like a Seth Curry but bigger type of player. His shooting has been exactly what I expected, defense the same, just the on ball ability wasn’t there. If you watch the film of him at TCU, he isn’t this huge on ball guy. He worked on his game and got put in a better situation in Memphis than he was at TCU and that helps. He also was older and a shorter wingspan did knock his stock down quite a bit, I honestly just didn’t care because I felt he could play.
Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Isaac Okoro/Auburn
Verdict: Hit
I was lower than consensus on Isaac Okoro and that proved to be correct. His lack of offense has continued to haunt him to this point and despite the fact he’s young, he’s out of favor in Cleveland and who knows what happens from here. He’s still a really talented defensive player that has value as an NBA player.
Patrick Williams/Florida State
Verdict: Hit
I never got the Patrick Williams hype where he went. Like I get that those players are hard to get, but he wasn’t that good. We can get caught up on an archetype and that’s how we end up ignoring red flags and taking someone like Ziaire Williams at 10. But with Patrick Williams, he’s been fine. He’s been outplayed by minimum guys throughout his career like Javonte Green and Torrey Craig. He’s also been hurt, and he’s still young. I think the contract they gave him this offseason is going to be an overpay. Once the cap rises, I think it will look better but that is not the money I want to be spending on him.
Jalen Smith/Maryland
Verdict: Hit
Granted, this one isn’t as big of a hit as I’d like it to be. If you were to redraft 2020, Jalen Smith is probably around the late teens. Now, having him at 13 is within range so I consider it a hit. I still wonder what would have happened if he ended up in New Orleans instead of Phoenix. While I liked Phoenix being bold, I hated that fit and they soured fast. I over estimated a bit of his abilities for sure which mainly include his defense and 3PT ability, but he’s been solid as a backup to this point and could end up having a decent run in Chicago now.
Aleksej Pokusevski/Olympiacos B
Verdict: Miss
Yeah, I fell for the Poku trap. Now, I ignored a lot of the context around Poku which is a big reason why I got this one wrong. He wasn’t playing high level basketball before the NBA. He was and still is a twig. He was very interesting as a prospect, but I didn’t realize how raw he was still and even OKC in their patient state initially, couldn’t put him on the floor. Now he’s heading back to Serbia and it’s unlikely we will see him in the league again unless he turns into a stud overseas.
Malachi Flynn/San Diego State
Verdict: Miss
Yeah I whiffed on this one pretty badly. I was newer into scouting and didn’t completely understand the huge difference in conferences. He had a lot of positive indicators, but in college, he was seen as a defensive PG with some good offensive ability. Now, he had a 50 Point Game in a weird fashion. However, the defense just hasn’t ever come around and we will see how much longer he lasts in the league.
Credit: The Athletic
Aaron Nesmith/Vanderbilt
Verdict: Hit
Aaron Nesmith struggled in Boston, but the trade to Indiana really helped him out and now he’s on a good contract for the next few years. In a redraft, he goes around 16 anyway, so it’s a hit. Nesmith was a risky player because of the fact he played 14 games but shot 52% from 3 so yeah. He’s turned himself into a good defender at this point too.
Cole Anthony/UNC
Verdict: Hit
Cole Anthony had a down year last year but before that, he was one of the better backup PG’s in the NBA. He got a good contract for him. I’m frankly surprised he signed that and didn’t try to force himself elsewhere, but it seems like it worked out for him as he fell out of favor in Orlando. I think he’s a good player and scorer. In a redraft, he goes around here, so I think its a win.
Tyrese Maxey/Kentucky
Verdict: Miss
I liked Tyrese Maxey. Quite a bit actually. Everyone missed on it though. His improvement from when he entered the league is incredible. I also didn’t understand the Kentucky guard bump as much as I do now. Good on Maxey on getting that max contract. I don’t feel that bad about this one as I did have him higher than where he went at least.
Saddiq Bey/Villanova
Verdict: Hit
Saddiq was overplayed in both Detroit and Atlanta. He tore his ACL late last season and now he’s in Washington a good contract for both sides. Saddiq has been what I expected and I’m glad the consensus has started to see that. I laugh how he was getting hyped up as after his rookie season. I hope some people sold high on that.
Xavier Tillman/Michigan State
Verdict: Hit
Another player with a bit of down year this season but you can’t ignore the fact he was starting in the playoffs for Memphis before this past season. Xavier Tillman is an NBA player if his knees are healthy. If not, then it’ll be tough. However, he’s just a good player.
Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Obi Toppin/Dayton
Verdict: Hit
Now, I consider this a hit but it’s not by much. He ended up in a great situation in Indiana and is now on a good contract. If he ended up anywhere else, I think it could have been pretty dire but I was too low. I was lower on him than consensus, probably a bit too low but there where always concerns to me. I never really got the top 10 hype, but as a solid pick in the 20’s, I could have seen it.
RJ Hampton/New Zealand
Verdict: Miss
Yeah this one hurts a bit. He flashed in Denver, flashed in Orlando and that was it. He’s got the tools, but couldn’t ever put it together. He was solid in New Zealand as well but he was a swing and he didn’t work out. It is what it is.
Isaiah Joe/Arkansas
Verdict: Hit
I couldn’t ever really get why Isaiah Joe was as low as he was. Like he was a good shooter and limited in everything else, but I thought he was quite possibly one of the best pure shooters in the world. It stinks that Doc Rivers never gave him a shot. (Like Maxey haha), and Sam Presti reaps the reward of it. He’s improved as a defender and Joe is a legitimate difference maker at this point.
Tyrell Terry/Stanford
Verdict: Miss
This one is a tough one too because of lot of Terry’s struggles weren’t talent based, but physically and more importantly mentally. He’s already retired from basketball and is a student at Stanford currently. He always had talent, but he couldn’t add weight and the pressures of everything didn’t help.
Immanuel Quickley/Kentucky
Verdict: Miss
In the actual draft, Immanuel Quickley went higher than most expected. I didn’t actually like him a ton, but I noticed that teams that were noted as having very good scouting departments and good at getting steals, kept bringing him in for workouts. I re-evaluated a bit and more just bet on the fact I was missing something. That ended up being correct but didn’t have him high enough. It was immediately apparent that the Knicks got a steal at 25 and when that pick happened, I knew I had him too low.
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Paul Reed/DePaul
Verdict: Hit
I was surprised that Paul fell as far as he did on draft night. That has ended up being proven correct, though he’s still been a bit limited. He’s still pretty small for a center and the shot hasn’t come around. However, he’s got the talent to be a NBA player. Philadelphia didn’t prioritize him enough and now we will see what happens in Detroit.
Sam Merrill/Utah State
Verdict: Hit
I had Sam Merrill way higher than consensus clearly. He was basically Mountain West Luka Doncic. Now, I knew his shooting would scale up. He was an elite shooter in college, he’s 6’5 and if he could stand his own in the league, there was a place for him. That has been proven correct but it’s also taken 4 years to get there. He’s now 28, so we will see how much longer that ends up lasting, but he’s a very effective player. In win shares, he’s in this range already despite only playing one real season.
Jaden McDaniels/Washington
Verdict: Miss
Yeah I missed. He had a bad year at Washington, it was a bad fit, I got caught up into it, hard to evaluate and I missed. Teams missed too. I didn’t have any strong thoughts on him pre-draft but yeah. This one was too low.
Tyler Bey/Colorado
Verdict: Miss
Yeah he was one and done in the NBA. He was on a two way in Dallas after getting drafted and immediately I realized I screwed up. I got caught up in the idea of Tyler Bey rather than the reality. I over estimated his shooting and he never really got a real chance anywhere.
Payton Pritchard/Oregon
Verdict: Miss
I mean Pritchard was good, I wasn’t super over the moon on him though. He’s better right now than I thought he’d ever get, so I’ll take the loss on it. It’s not as bad of a miss as some others but it is what it is.
Notable Hits in the Second Round
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33. Tre Jones/Duke
Verdict: Hit
I liked Tre Jones quite a bit. He wasn’t that exciting as a prospect but as a solid PG, I had him moderately high and I would consider this one a hit. He’s been what I expected basically.
37. Zeke Nnaji/Arizona
Verdict: Hit
I didn’t see it with Zeke Nnaji and that seems to have been proven correct at this point. Denver drafted him in the first round and really liked him enough to take him at 22. They gave him a contract extension and it looks like he will only last as long as he’s in Denver.
40. Udoka Azubuike/Kansas
Verdict: Hit
I have no idea why the Jazz took him in the first round. It continues to boggle my mind. Udoka just has proven that he’s not an NBA player. He’ll make some money overseas but it never made sense to me.
46. Vernon Carey Jr./Duke
Verdict: Hit
I wasn’t high on Vernon and that was proven correct. After Charlotte decided to dump him to Utah, that was the end of it for him. His game was just too old school.
47. Jah’mius Ramsey/Texas Tech
Verdict: Hit
I wasn’t as high on Ramsey either than the consensus and that was proven correct. He should have stayed in college. He’s hung around a bit but I don’t think he’ll get much of another shot.
55. Skylar Mays/LSU
Verdict: Hit
Mays has been solid as a player at this point. He’s had moments but to have him draftable at least has been proven correct. He was projected in this range and lower but I think I ended up on the positive side on it.
57. Nathan Knight/William & Mary’s
Verdict: Hit
He hung around for a few years and for 57, its a win. He had moments in Atlanta that made me think that he might be able to stick but he hasn’t. Even then, I felt he was talented enough to get draft and I think that was correct.
60. Trevelin Queen/New Mexico State
Verdict: Hit
For 60, its a hit. Like he hasn’t ever really established himself, but he’s still in the NBA after 4 seasons which might be surprising to some. He’s a decent scorer, maybe he works himself into a role, but it ended up being a good flier here.
Notable Misses in the Second Round
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Josh Green/Arizona
Verdict: Miss
I was too low on Josh Green. Not by a ton, but his shooting has come around enough to say that he can be a rotation player in the NBA. The defense is still there and it was present at Arizona as well. This one is barely a miss in my book though. He was around the 20’s with the consensus but I just didn’t see it as much as others. I should have bet more on the fact that he’s young and the possibility of him being a young rotation player.
36. Precious Achiuwa/Memphis
Verdict: Miss
What’s funny about this is Precious Achiuwa has been almost exactly as I expected. All the issues that has hindered Precious at this point, its exactly what I worried about. The only thing for me is I wasn’t expecting Precious to get as many opportunities as he’s gotten and so he’s gotten more opportunities to grow and play meaningful minutes. So it’s a miss, but time will tell. It’s not a miss by a lot, but I should have had him in the first round at least. He’s been better than Wiseman at least.
39. Isaiah Stewart/Washington
Verdict: Miss
This one was proven too low very quickly. Despite everything that went on with Detroit, Stewart has been better than 39. It was a reach at the time to take him at 16, but now in a redraft, that’s probably where he goes. I should have bet more on the high school tape and just realized that he was going to make it just off his strength and bully ball mentality.
That will do it for my 2020 look back. It’s important to look back and your work, look where you messed up, and then work to amend that for the next cycles so you can be more accurate. Obviously, there’s quite a bit of luck involved, especially with limited resources, but you can always improve your craft.