Zach Edey, TJ Shannon, Coleman Hawkins, Boogie Ellis
Brian breaks down the top prospects from Purdue and Illinois. We also look a recent draft riser. This includes big Zach Edey, wing TJ Shannon, big Coleman Hawkins, and guard Boogie Ellis.
Purdue and Illinois were the best two teams in the Big 10 Conference this season. Purdue ended up making it to the final against the UCONN Huskies and ended up losing. Illinois ended up losing to UCONN as well, but in the Elite 8. Illinois could have been a better team had it not been for an incident that happened mid-season. I will also breakdown the draft riser Boogie Ellis from USC.
Zach Edey/Purdue
Link to Photo
The 2x Naismith Player of the Year, Zach Edey. The first thing that stands out with this man, as you can see by the photo, is that guy is huge. He measured 7’4 without shoes at the combine with a 7’11 wingspan. These are Wemby-like numbers. Also, I’m just going to blatantly say this. For those people who think Edey is only good because he’s tall, really don’t know what they're talking about. Zach Edey this season had one of the greatest seasons of all time for Purdue. He was doing things that haven’t been seen since Bill Russell. He’s not going to have this impact in the NBA, I guarantee you. However, there are a lot of things we need to consider.
Personal Opinion
There are some people who are very high on the Zach Edey bandwagon and have him as a lottery pick. I am not there with him. I think if he goes first round, I won’t have an issue with it. At some point, you can bank on the fact that he’s still newer to basketball, his height, dominance, and him just being a huge body to throw at people. A lot of the naysayers will point to the fact that he’s slow and he’ll get torched on defense. Yes he is slow. He’s also not that slow compared to a lot of other prospects. He tested better speed wise than Donovan Clingan for example. He ran faster than guys like Trey Murphy and Kobe Bufkin. He looks slower than he actually is due to his size. Ultimately, I feel like I’m in the middle in terms of polarizing opinions.
Fantasy
Now he’s not going to have this level of usage. He’s going to get the rebounds, he’s going to pass a little bit, and he’s going to get to the foul line. There’s a small, small, small outside chance that he shoots it at some point, but I wouldn’t be banking on it. In dynasty leagues, he’s going to be one of the most interesting guys this season to watch. I think if he were to start and play like 28 minutes, he could be a top 100 player. I think there is a level of safeness with him, and that has value.
If Zach fails in the league, Why?
His lack of speed as a rim protector could hinder his playing time. His lack of a shot could hinder him as well. His lack of mobility could hurt him too.
There’s not much point in me doing a bartorvik simulation because of how much of an outlier Edey is. So we are sticking with tankathon in this one. Obviously he’s not Thabeet but it’s hard to find statistical comparisons.
Big Performance Highlights
33 Pts, 14 Reb, 1 Blk, 2 To, 11-23 FG, 11-12 FT
Zach Edey was against another draft prospect in this one in Kel’el Ware. Ware was terrible in this game with just 5 points and 6 rebounds. Edey was just completely dominant. Purdue won this game by 21 points. There’s not much more to say about it.
40 Pts, 16 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 2 To, 13-21 FG, 14-22 FT
40 Points. Purdue had 72 points as a team. That is 55.6% of the points on the team. Zach Edey was just a monster in this Elite 8 win against Tennessee. He sealed the deal with a block on Dalton Knecht late in the second half too. Just a dominant performance against the team with the second best player in the country.
TJ Shannon/Illinois
David Craan/Illinois Athletics
TJ Shannon has been in draft conversations for what feels like a decade. He first got the spotlight at Texas Tech. He played there for 3 seasons before transferring to Illinois. There he’s been a lot more offensively focused and really shown an improvement there. Defensively, it’s been a bit more of a question but he played better defense at Texas Tech earlier in his career. Now, a lot of what I’m going to say after this point may not matter at all because earlier this season, he was accused of rape and battery and a court case has been set for June 10th. The outcome of this trial will dramatically influence his stock.
Personal Opinion
I was completely out on TJ Shannon at one point. Then this season, I’ve bought into him a bit more. Now, I’ve been very conservative with where I’ve ranked him due to the allegations, but if all goes well, he'll likely be an early second round prospect for me. If not, then he can be ranked 300th for all I care.
Fantasy
He will not have the ball in his hands at the level he had it at Illinois. He might be good enough to be able to be one of the main offensive options off the bench initially, but he’ll need to learn how to adapt. If everything goes right, and he plays the same role he played at Illinois and is playing 30 minutes a night, he could be a top 100 player. I wouldn’t be banking on it, because the leash is going to be short with him with his age.
If Terrence fails in the league, Why?
Well aside from the court case, he could end up really struggling to score at the next level and he could really struggle to adapt to a role player role. He also could struggle on defense which basically just puts him as an athlete.
Now I expect TJ to show up first on this list due to his age. Some people have compared him to Donovan Mitchell and Victor Oladipo as athletes. While he is very athletic and is on that level, I don’t think his offense is at the level theirs was despite the age. You can see here that a lot of these guys got chances in the NBA, so if all goes well, TJ will get a chance and very likely more than one due to his position and athleticism.
Big Performance Highlights
40 Pts, 2 Reb, 1 Ast, 2 Stl, 11-22 FG, 5-9 3PT, 13-16 FT
Shannon was completely unstoppable in this game as he dropped a 40 burger on Nebraska. Illinois won this game by 11 points and he was the only reason why they won this game at all as this was a very high scoring game.
29 Pts, 5 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 Stl, 3 To, 10-19 FG, 4-10 3PT, 5-10 FT
This was in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament and Illinois won this game by 3 points in a very competitive game. Shannon had a steal and break away dunk that sealed the deal for the Fighting Illini.
Coleman Hawkins/Illinois
David Craan/Illinois Athletics
Coleman Hawkins has been in draft discussions for the past couple seasons now. He’s a versatile big man that can really pass the basketball. It won’t be hard for him to scale up to the NBA given his usefulness as a role player, but there are questions athletically and his potential position in the NBA. A side note, he does look quite a bit like LaMelo Ball.
Personal Opinion
I like the idea of what Coleman Hawkins can be. I’m very skeptical about how he’s going to play in the NBA. If the shooting sticks at this level, then I think he can play the 4 and there’s a role for him in the NBA. If he doesn’t, I don’t see it because of the limited rebounding and without the shooting, he’ll need to play the 5.
Fantasy
The appeal will come from the out of position assists and 3PT shooting if he does hit. In certain builds, he will be way more valuable than others, but in dynasty leagues, you’d be needing to buy him as a shooter. If everything goes right for Hawkins, I could see him becoming a top 100 player, maybe even top 80.
If Coleman fails in the league, Why?
The shooting efficiency never comes around and he’s basically an undersized big that will likely never see the court due to his deficiencies as a big man.
I found this pretty interesting though. 2 of these 6 got drafted, and he’s not Cameron Johnson. However, all of these guys got at least a shot. Brady Manek was just in the summer league, but Jontay Porter got a two way contract and overcame a lot of injuries to play for one season. Killian Tillie was a lot better of a player but was hurt quite a bit. Erik Murphy only got one season in the league too, so Hawkins will get a chance. We will see what he does with that chance though.
Big Performance Highlights
21 Pts, 10 Reb, 4 Ast, 6 Stl, 1 Blk, 6-10 FG, 3-5 3PT, 6-6 FT
This was Coleman’s best game of the season as the Illini beat the Wolverines by 15 points. This was during Shannon’s suspension from the team and so Hawkins was the guy doing everything and was the best player on the floor in this game. Obviously some outlier stuff here for Hawkins but Michigan was a bad team this season.
30 Pts, 2 Reb, 5 Ast, 5 Stl, 5 To, 9-11 FG, 3-5 3PT, 9-11 FT
Hawkins was feeling it in this game and was hitting a lot of his shots. TJ Shannon was having an off night, and let Hawkins cook in this game. Illinois won this game by 10 points and Hawkins was the best player on the floor on both sides.
Boogie Ellis/USC
John McGillen/USC Athletics
So I’m going to issue an apology to Boogie Ellis. In the middle of March, I broke down the top prospects from USC and UCLA. I didn’t include Boogie Ellis because of a couple reasons. The first reason is that I didn’t see him as a high level prospect. There were some fans, but I wasn’t one of them. The second reason is that I had Kobe Johnson considerably higher and thought that he would at least test the waters. That didn’t end up happening, and now it’s come back to bite me as Boogie Ellis ended up getting a G League Elite Camp invite after some people withdrew, he was by far the best player on the floor at the camp, and got the NBA Combine invite. So here we are. Let’s break him down. Here’s the link to the other article if you are interested in Isaiah Collier, Adem Bona, Bronny James, and Kobe Johnson. This was written a few months ago for what it’s worth. I’ve warmed up a bit more on Bronny since then, but I still think he’s not draftable despite the buzz. He’s going to get drafted and I am more ok with that now, but it is what it is.
Personal Opinion
Frankly, I’m not that high on him. I get it was a really bad year for USC, but the fact that he struggled as much as he did and how little improvement there seems to have been over the years, it’s hard for me to buy in. Now granted he has improved, just not enough for me to want to take a chance on him.
Fantasy
The appeal with him would be the scoring and the 3’s, but there’s very little else that he offers in terms of fantasy. If everything went right and he was starting, I don’t even think he’d be a top 100 player. If you want him in dynasty because of how flashy he plays, you could probably get him as a UDFA. If someone else takes him, you should be crying yourself to sleep over it.
If Boogie fails in the league, Why?
His size could really make it so he doesn’t have enough positional size to play the 2, and he’s not good enough of a passer to play the PG. Furthermore, a lack of another elite skill could make it tough for him to stick.
That’s a lot of names right? For people that really want to believe in Boogie as an NBA guy, it’s hard to make it as this undersized 2, scoring build. Kyle Guy was the only player on this list that got drafted. He didn’t last very long in the league, and frankly, he’s a better prospect than Boogie. D’Moi Hodge didn’t last the season on a two way contract for the Lakers. If I put in the mid-major players that hit this criteria, the other couple names that had some little time in the league were Armoni Brooks and Ian Clark. Clark was a better passer and Brooks only played in bad situations.
Big Performance Highlights
30 Pts, 4 Reb, 5 Ast, 1 Stl, 2 To, 10-19 FG, 5-9 3PT, 5-6 FT
This was a triple overtime game and USC lost this game by 3 points. Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier were big in this game and they were the only reason that this game was close at all. Boogie hit his shots and kept it close to say the least.
Final Thoughts
Zach Edey is a big bodied big man that can really screen. He was a menace in college basketball and will go down as one of the best college players of all time. The questions around him are going to be about his speed and overall fit in the NBA. Is he a Boban or is he an Ivica Zubac? However, he has good defensive instincts and will likely find a role in the league. I currently have Zach Edey at 25 on my board. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Zach Edey went 25th to the New York Knicks
TJ Shannon is a hyper athletic wing that has really improved as a scorer. There is a pending legal case on him that will determine whether or not he has a real shot or not, but if he does have that shot, he has all the tools and skills necessary in order to make it in the league. Like I said above, I am being relatively conservative with him until we find out the verdict. I have a placeholder ranking at 57 at the moment, but if he were to be cleared, I would probably bump up into the 35-45 range. Due to the recent allegations, he wasn’t put on the recent mock draft.
Coleman Hawkins is a big man that can handle the ball and pass. He’s been in draft conversations for a while and has really improved as a shooter this season. The concerns with him involve his rebounding, aggressiveness, and size. However, there aren’t a ton of big men that can pass like he can. I currently have Coleman Hawkins just outside my top 60, but I do think he could be drafted if he chooses to stay. He has entered the transfer portal and if he does return to school, it very likely will not be Illinois that he returns to with the addition of Carey Booth to the Illini. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Coleman Hawkins went 46th to the Los Angeles Clippers.
Boogie Ellis has been a draft riser after tearing up the G League Elite Camp and playing well at the NBA Combine. He’s an undersized scoring guard that played on a very bad USC team this season. He’s had some buzz as a draft guy for a little while now and this is his year. I currently have him inside my top 80. In the recent Dizzle Dynasty Mock, Boogie Ellis went undrafted.